Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border</li>
<li>Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes</li>
<li>Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others</li>
</ul>


USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border
Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes
Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others


US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As expected, a SAMR investigation depressed top-line growth and profitability in Q226 </li>
<li>Management offered no forward guidance on earnings call, but hinted at headwinds to come</li>
<li>We believe it may take a few quarters for Trip.com to regain momentum</li>
</ul>


As expected, a SAMR investigation depressed top-line growth and profitability in Q226 
Management offered no forward guidance on earnings call, but hinted at headwinds to come
We believe it may take a few quarters for Trip.com to regain momentum


Trip.com Q226 Results | Slow Top-Line & Adj EBITDA Met Low Expectations | No Quick Fix, in Our View

<ul>
<li>Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15</li>
<li>Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period</li>
<li>Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble</li>
</ul>


Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15
Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period
Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble


Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

<ul>
<li>After a sluggish start to 2026, March domestic and outbound air travel demand surged</li>
<li>Airline data shows March outbound and domestic traffic up 18% and 11% respectively</li>
<li>Record high outbound load factor could help Chinese airlines pass on fuel cost increases</li>
</ul>


After a sluggish start to 2026, March domestic and outbound air travel demand surged
Airline data shows March outbound and domestic traffic up 18% and 11% respectively
Record high outbound load factor could help Chinese airlines pass on fuel cost increases


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March Demand Growth Improved | High Outbound Load Factor +ive

<ul>
<li>Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air</li>
<li>By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y</li>
<li>Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient</li>
</ul>


Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air
By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y
Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient


December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q226 Results | Slow Top-Line & Adj EBITDA Met Low Expectations | No Quick Fix, in Our View

Trip.com reported Q226 results that mostly met lowered expectations after SAMR's investigation into the platform's anti-competitive practices. We...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

Trip.com will finally report Q2 results on Tuesday evening (US time). Expectations for Q2 are low but forward guidance could indicate how quickly...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March Demand Growth Improved | High Outbound Load Factor +ive

March outbound and domestic air passenger counts surged, up 18% and 11% Y/Y, respectively. High passenger load factors should help carriers pass on...

Tracking Traffic

December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

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