Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.</li>
<li>ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.</li>
<li>A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.</li>
<li>Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.</li>
<li>BUY…</li>
</ul>


Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.
ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.
A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.
Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.
BUY…


Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Malaysia’s GDP grew 4% y-o-y in 2Q2016 compared to a 4.2% y-o-y rise in 1Q2016 – slowing for the sixth straight quarter. Final consumption contributed 4.1 percentage point (ppt) to GDP largely driven by private consumption while fixed capital formation contributed 1.7 ppt. Change in inventories and net exports detracted 1.2 ppt and 0.7 ppt respectively from GDP. Net exports detracted from overall GDP as imports grew at a faster pace than exports.On the supply side, growth continued to be driven…

Malaysia’s GDP grew 4% y-o-y in 2Q2016 compared to a 4.2% y-o-y rise in 1Q2016 – slowing for the sixth straight quarter. Final consumption contributed 4.1 percentage point (ppt) to GDP largely driven by private consumption while fixed capital formation contributed 1.7 ppt. Change in inventories and net exports detracted 1.2 ppt and 0.7 ppt respectively from GDP. Net exports detracted from overall GDP as imports grew at a faster pace than exports.On the supply side, growth continued to be driven…

Malaysia: Manufacturing and Services Drive GDP

The accounting research firm, GMT Research

Lisa Mangkornkarn

The accounting research firm

GMT Research

GMT Research provides independent insight into markets, sectors and companies throughout Asia. Our unique method of mining a comprehensive collection of corporate financial statements for key data allows us to evaluate the financial health of a company, sectors and the market at large. We also investigate the application of accounting standards by companies and sectors, shedding light on the quality of reported profits. Armed with this information, we help investment professionals navigate the financial landscape.

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Enterprises Water Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW, 371 HK), AirAsia and Noble Group have a lot in common: They book profits but fail to generate cash. At each company this has led to highly levered balance sheets with scant underlying cash inflows from which to service debt. In our report on BEW, we explain how the company uses questionable accounting assumptions and disclosure to hide the fact that cash-backed profits are less than half the reported numbers. Large deferred tax liabilities would appear to confirm the scale of this accounting mirage. BEW continues to grow using borrowed money and, as a result, is now over-leveraged. This situation is made worse by much of its debt being offshore and unhedged. The company is now reliant on capital markets to fund its capex and debt repayment. Should the renminbi weaken or credit markets tighten the business model could rapidly unravel. We think the stock worth just 50% of book value at HK$0.95/share, some 80% below current levels.

Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW, 371 HK), AirAsia and Noble Group have a lot in common: They book profits but fail to generate cash. At each company this has led to highly levered balance sheets with scant underlying cash inflows from which to service debt. In our report on BEW, we explain how the company uses questionable accounting assumptions and disclosure to hide the fact that cash-backed profits are less than half the reported numbers. Large deferred tax liabilities would appear to confirm the scale of this accounting mirage. BEW continues to grow using borrowed money and, as a result, is now over-leveraged. This situation is made worse by much of its debt being offshore and unhedged. The company is now reliant on capital markets to fund its capex and debt repayment. Should the renminbi weaken or credit markets tighten the business model could rapidly unravel. We think the stock worth just 50% of book value at HK$0.95/share, some 80% below current levels.

Beijing Enterprises Water: Show Me the Money!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

TIGER, tiger, burning bright* In the forests of the night, What immortal hand or eye Could frame thy fearful symmetry?In what distant deeps or skies Burnt the fire of thine eyes? On what wings dare he aspire? What the hand dare seize the fire?What hand dare? Singapore Air. Wings of Aspiration? Not so much. <h2>WHAT HAS HAPPENED?</h2><ol><li>
The Independent Financial Advisor (IFA) Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte. Ltd has concluded "the financial terms of the Offer are, on balance, fair and reasonable." (p53-101 of the…</li></ol>

TIGER, tiger, burning bright* In the forests of the night, What immortal hand or eye Could frame thy fearful symmetry?In what distant deeps or skies Burnt the fire of thine eyes? On what wings dare he aspire? What the hand dare seize the fire?What hand dare? Singapore Air. Wings of Aspiration? Not so much. WHAT HAS HAPPENED?
The Independent Financial Advisor (IFA) Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte. Ltd has concluded "the financial terms of the Offer are, on balance, fair and reasonable." (p53-101 of the…

Complaining to the Securities Commission about our research appears to be an attempt to undermine our credibility and distract attention away from the issues that matter. How much profit has AirAsia milked from its associates over the past five years and is it appropriate to be doing so at all?Maybe the revelation that AirAsia makes more money selling stuff to its distressed associates than flying people around the region might scare stakeholders away. But it&rsquo;s not just the associates that are loss-making and in financial distress; there are the affiliates such as AirAsia X, and the parent AirAsia.Let&rsquo;s not forget the holding company Tune Group and its loss-making and indebted football club, Queen&rsquo;s Park Rangers, and the rather rushed sale of the now bankrupt Formula 1 team, Caterham. It all looks like a rather large mountain of debt teetering on the edge of default. Perhaps the real reason that there&rsquo;s resistance to recapitalising AirAsia is because Tune Group can&rsquo;t afford it.

Complaining to the Securities Commission about our research appears to be an attempt to undermine our credibility and distract attention away from the issues that matter. How much profit has AirAsia milked from its associates over the past five years and is it appropriate to be doing so at all?Maybe the revelation that AirAsia makes more money selling stuff to its distressed associates than flying people around the region might scare stakeholders away. But it&rsquo;s not just the associates that are loss-making and in financial distress; there are the affiliates such as AirAsia X, and the parent AirAsia.Let&rsquo;s not forget the holding company Tune Group and its loss-making and indebted football club, Queen&rsquo;s Park Rangers, and the rather rushed sale of the now bankrupt Formula 1 team, Caterham. It all looks like a rather large mountain of debt teetering on the edge of default. Perhaps the real reason that there&rsquo;s resistance to recapitalising AirAsia is because Tune Group can&rsquo;t afford it.

Malaysia

AirAsia Berhad provides low-cost air carrier service. The company provides services on short-haul, point-to-point domestic and international routes. AirAsia, headquartered in Malaysia, operates from hubs in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and India.

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AirAsia Berhad (AIRA MK)

Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos. ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with...

David Riedel

Malaysia: Manufacturing and Services Drive GDP

Malaysia’s GDP grew 4% y-o-y in 2Q2016 compared to a 4.2% y-o-y rise in 1Q2016 – slowing for the sixth straight quarter. Final consumption...

Rajan Govil

Beijing Enterprises Water: Show Me the Money!

Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW, 371 HK), AirAsia and Noble Group have a lot in common: They book profits but fail to generate cash. At each company...

GMT Research

TIGER, Tiger Burning Bright

TIGER, tiger, burning bright*In the forests of the night,What immortal hand or eyeCould frame thy fearful symmetry?In what distant deeps or...

Travis Lundy

AIRASIA: Just Answer the Questions

Complaining to the Securities Commission about our research appears to be an attempt to undermine our credibility and distract attention away from...

GMT Research

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