High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Beijing Capital International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

<ul>
<li>Recent newsflow and company results suggest China outbound travel is on track to recover to pre-pandemic level by the end of this year.</li>
<li>China airports have different exposures to outbound travel, which largely determines the scale of their duty-free shopping business and earnings upside amidst this recovery cycle.</li>
<li>Beijing Capital Airport offers best risk/return profile among listed China airports in our view as current valuation does not fully capture even a conservative scenario of recovery in outbound travel.</li>
</ul>


Recent newsflow and company results suggest China outbound travel is on track to recover to pre-pandemic level by the end of this year.
China airports have different exposures to outbound travel, which largely determines the scale of their duty-free shopping business and earnings upside amidst this recovery cycle.
Beijing Capital Airport offers best risk/return profile among listed China airports in our view as current valuation does not fully capture even a conservative scenario of recovery in outbound travel.


China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Airbnb's Fourth Quarter earnings for 2023 revealed significant financial growth, with 99 million Nights and Experiences booked in Q4, marking Airbnb's highest ever fourth-quarter results.</li><li>Revenue increased by 70% year on year to reach $2.2 billion.</li><li>However, the net loss for the company stood at $249 million.</li></ul>

Airbnb's Fourth Quarter earnings for 2023 revealed significant financial growth, with 99 million Nights and Experiences booked in Q4, marking Airbnb's highest ever fourth-quarter results.Revenue increased by 70% year on year to reach $2.2 billion.However, the net loss for the company stood at $249 million.

Airbnb Inc: Increased Supply & Better Conversion Rates Can Lead To A Solid 2024? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Airbnb delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, reporting a net income of $4.4 billion, including a one-time income tax benefit of $2.8 billion from releasing a valuation allowance.</li><li>Excluding this benefit, adjusted net income reached a significant $1.6 billion, representing a historic adjusted net income margin of 47%.</li><li>The quarter's free cash flow amounted to $1.3 billion, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow hitting an all-time high of $4.2 billion.</li></ul>

Airbnb delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, reporting a net income of $4.4 billion, including a one-time income tax benefit of $2.8 billion from releasing a valuation allowance.Excluding this benefit, adjusted net income reached a significant $1.6 billion, representing a historic adjusted net income margin of 47%.The quarter's free cash flow amounted to $1.3 billion, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow hitting an all-time high of $4.2 billion.

Airbnb Inc.: The GamePlanner.AI Acquisition & Investments In AI - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting in revenue of $2.5 billion, marking an 18% year-over-year growth.</li><li>Net income for the quarter stood at $650 million, reflecting a net income margin of 26%, the highest second-quarter margin ever achieved.</li><li>Additionally, free cash flow reached $900 million, a 13% increase from the previous year, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow of $3.9 billion and a margin of 43%.</li></ul>

Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting in revenue of $2.5 billion, marking an 18% year-over-year growth.Net income for the quarter stood at $650 million, reflecting a net income margin of 26%, the highest second-quarter margin ever achieved.Additionally, free cash flow reached $900 million, a 13% increase from the previous year, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow of $3.9 billion and a margin of 43%.

Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! - Major Drivers

United States

Airbnb, Inc. operates an online marketplace for travel information and booking services. The Company offers lodging, home-stay, and tourism services via websites and mobile applications. Airbnb serves clients worldwide.

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Airbnb (ABNB US)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff

China outbound travel is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by year-end, with Beijing Capital Airport offering the best risk/return profile...

Eric Chen

Airbnb Inc: Increased Supply & Better Conversion Rates Can Lead To A Solid 2024? - Major Drivers

Airbnb's Fourth Quarter earnings for 2023 revealed significant financial growth, with 99 million Nights and Experiences booked in Q4, marking...

Baptista Research

Airbnb Inc.: The GamePlanner.AI Acquisition & Investments In AI - Major Drivers

Airbnb delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, reporting a net income of $4.4 billion, including a one-time income tax benefit of...

Baptista Research

Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! - Major Drivers

Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff

​China outbound travel is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by year-end, with Beijing Capital Airport offering the best risk/return profile...

Eric Chen

Airbnb Inc: Increased Supply & Better Conversion Rates Can Lead To A Solid 2024? - Major Drivers

Airbnb's Fourth Quarter earnings for 2023 revealed significant financial growth, with 99 million Nights and Experiences booked in Q4, marking...

Baptista Research

Airbnb Inc.: The GamePlanner.AI Acquisition & Investments In AI - Major Drivers

Airbnb delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, reporting a net income of $4.4 billion, including a one-time income tax benefit of...

Baptista Research

Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! - Major Drivers

Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting...

Baptista Research

China outbound travel is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by year-end, with Beijing Capital Airport offering the best risk/return profile...