High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.</li><li>As of last Friday’s close, the S&amp;P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.</li><li>Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.</li></ul>

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.As of last Friday’s close, the S&amp;P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.

<ul><li>Stickier For Longer? Inflation continues to be top of mind for the Federal Reserve and investors as recent economic data continues to throw a wrench in the market’s previously perceived Fed plans for them to pause and then cut interest rates in the back half of 2023.</li><li>The Fed has hiked interest rates from almost zero to nearly 5% within the past year in response to inflation running at historic highs, and it expects to lift them even higher in the coming months.</li><li>Meanwhile, Fed speakers continue to move the terminal rate goalposts by signaling 5.5% or thereabouts terminal rates will cause the “immaculate disinflation” as if this magical fed funds interest rate level and only at this level will inflation continue to moderate downward.</li></ul>

Stickier For Longer? Inflation continues to be top of mind for the Federal Reserve and investors as recent economic data continues to throw a wrench in the market’s previously perceived Fed plans for them to pause and then cut interest rates in the back half of 2023.The Fed has hiked interest rates from almost zero to nearly 5% within the past year in response to inflation running at historic highs, and it expects to lift them even higher in the coming months.Meanwhile, Fed speakers continue to move the terminal rate goalposts by signaling 5.5% or thereabouts terminal rates will cause the “immaculate disinflation” as if this magical fed funds interest rate level and only at this level will inflation continue to moderate downward.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: Balancing China’s development with need for food production</li><li>Beijing drops more Covid rules as outbreak declared ‘under control’</li><li>China’s services activity shrinks a little less severely, Caixin PMI shows</li></ul>

Cover Story: Balancing China’s development with need for food productionBeijing drops more Covid rules as outbreak declared ‘under control’China’s services activity shrinks a little less severely, Caixin PMI shows

CX Daily: Balancing China’s Development With Need for Food Production

Equity Research, Equity Breakdown

Equity Breakdown

Equity Research

Our goal in Equity Breakdown is to take a public filing of a company and break it down into simple facts, no bullshit! We will provide you with the power of information and time to quickly understand a company.

<ul><li>One of the most anticipated IPO’s of the year is finally happening. This would represent the third-largest IPO of the year after Snowflake’s snowstorm and Bill Ackman’s Goliath-like SPAC.</li><li>Tonight we will breakdown Airbnb, (ABNB), a company that wants to revolutionize human connection through authenticity, community, and design.</li><li>Airbnb is a technology company that fosters a marketplace for home-sharing at a global scale.</li></ul>

One of the most anticipated IPO’s of the year is finally happening. This would represent the third-largest IPO of the year after Snowflake’s snowstorm and Bill Ackman’s Goliath-like SPAC.Tonight we will breakdown Airbnb, (ABNB), a company that wants to revolutionize human connection through authenticity, community, and design.Airbnb is a technology company that fosters a marketplace for home-sharing at a global scale.

United States

Airbnb, Inc. operates an online marketplace for travel information and booking services. The Company offers lodging, home-stay, and tourism services via websites and mobile applications. Airbnb serves clients worldwide.

Airbnb (ABNB US)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 3/27

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 2/20

The Fed has hiked interest rates from almost zero to nearly 5% within the past year in response to inflation running at historic highs

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

CX Daily: Balancing China’s Development With Need for Food Production

Cover Story: Balancing China’s development with need for food production. Beijing drops more Covid rules as outbreak declared ‘under control’

Caixin Global

Airbnb (ABNB) Breakdown

One of the most anticipated IPO’s of the year is finally happening. This would represent the third-largest IPO of the year after Snowflake’s...

Equity Breakdown