Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We raise our FY2026–27E core earnings forecasts to reflect improving conditions in the Middle East, which are expected to stabilize international passenger traffic at a level above our previous assumptions.</li><li>We raise our fair value to Bt70.00 (from Bt60.00), while maintaining our required return at 2.4%, despite our updated macro assumptions of a risk-free rate of 1.87% and a market risk premium of 4.42% (from 1.83% and 4.67%, respectively).</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Outperform (from Buy). Although our new 12-month fair value implies 12% upside, the company's two-year core EPS CAGR of 23% is broadly in line with the sector average, while the share price has already risen 13% MTD, reducing our tactical view to Very limited upside risk (from Neutral).</li></ul>

We raise our FY2026–27E core earnings forecasts to reflect improving conditions in the Middle East, which are expected to stabilize international passenger traffic at a level above our previous assumptions.We raise our fair value to Bt70.00 (from Bt60.00), while maintaining our required return at 2.4%, despite our updated macro assumptions of a risk-free rate of 1.87% and a market risk premium of 4.42% (from 1.83% and 4.67%, respectively).We downgrade our rating to Outperform (from Buy). Although our new 12-month fair value implies 12% upside, the company's two-year core EPS CAGR of 23% is broadly in line with the sector average, while the share price has already risen 13% MTD, reducing our tactical view to Very limited upside risk (from Neutral).

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): International Passenger Traffic Exceeds The Company's Target.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The visa-free privilege for Chinese tourists may be being reviewed due to the suspected illegal arms network in Pattaya. Chinese tourists contributed up to 20% of the total in 2024. </li>
<li>As of mid last year, Thailand officially restricted cannabis to medical use only; thus, everyone must obtain a a mandatory prescription, although implementation may be harder. </li>
<li>Alcohol consumption is banned in public places, but it won't impact the alcohol distributors. The 2-5 pm ban on alcohol sales did a lot of damage back then. </li>
</ul>


The visa-free privilege for Chinese tourists may be being reviewed due to the suspected illegal arms network in Pattaya. Chinese tourists contributed up to 20% of the total in 2024. 
As of mid last year, Thailand officially restricted cannabis to medical use only; thus, everyone must obtain a a mandatory prescription, although implementation may be harder. 
Alcohol consumption is banned in public places, but it won't impact the alcohol distributors. The 2-5 pm ban on alcohol sales did a lot of damage back then. 


<ul>
<li>Thailand has accelerated plans to make health insurance a mandatoryrequirement for international arrivals. Previously optional, this coverage protects the healthcare budget against rising costs of emergencies involving uninsured tourists.</li>
<li>The triple tax will hit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> revenue, PSC and landing (~60% of revenue): 1,120 THB PSC, a potential 300 THB entry fee, and mandatory insurance. </li>
<li>Hospital operators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> will see a reduction in "uncompensatedcare" while guaranteeing revenue at private market rates. </li>
</ul>


Thailand has accelerated plans to make health insurance a mandatoryrequirement for international arrivals. Previously optional, this coverage protects the healthcare budget against rising costs of emergencies involving uninsured tourists.
The triple tax will hit Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) revenue, PSC and landing (~60% of revenue): 1,120 THB PSC, a potential 300 THB entry fee, and mandatory insurance. 
Hospital operators like Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) and Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) will see a reduction in "uncompensatedcare" while guaranteeing revenue at private market rates. 


<ul>
<li>Noting the absence of DFS in the arrival gates, is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> benefiting from the tourists' spending in Thailand or others like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a>?</li>
<li>The PSC rate hike is not free, as the Thai government expects AOT to use its own operational cash flow to build the South Terminal development of Suvarnabhumi Airport. </li>
<li>Are the 44x PER, 5.7x PBR and 28x EV/EBITDA justified when AOT is transforming from high growth stocks to a more utility play?</li>
</ul>


Noting the absence of DFS in the arrival gates, is Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) benefiting from the tourists' spending in Thailand or others like CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)?
The PSC rate hike is not free, as the Thai government expects AOT to use its own operational cash flow to build the South Terminal development of Suvarnabhumi Airport. 
Are the 44x PER, 5.7x PBR and 28x EV/EBITDA justified when AOT is transforming from high growth stocks to a more utility play?


Airport of Thailand (AOT): Become a Utility Play?

<ul><li>We upgrade to Buy (from Neutral), with a wider upsideto 14% on a higher 12M FV of Bt60.00 (from Bt51.50), based on a lower required return of 2.4% (Rf 1.83%, MRP 4.67%).</li><li>Earnings outlook is improving, supported by rising PSC revenue, which should offset weaker King Power Duty Free (KPD) contributions from 2QFY26E.</li><li>We are positive on 2QFY26 passenger growth at +6% YoY (international +4%, domestic +8%), approaching 95% of pre-COVID (international 97%, domestic 93%), with flights up +4% YoY (international +2%, domestic +7%).</li></ul>

We upgrade to Buy (from Neutral), with a wider upsideto 14% on a higher 12M FV of Bt60.00 (from Bt51.50), based on a lower required return of 2.4% (Rf 1.83%, MRP 4.67%).Earnings outlook is improving, supported by rising PSC revenue, which should offset weaker King Power Duty Free (KPD) contributions from 2QFY26E.We are positive on 2QFY26 passenger growth at +6% YoY (international +4%, domestic +8%), approaching 95% of pre-COVID (international 97%, domestic 93%), with flights up +4% YoY (international +2%, domestic +7%).

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): PSC Revenue Growth Offsets KPD Impact

Thailand

Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT) operates and manages six international airports in Thailand, including Suvarnabhumi Airport and Don Mueang International Airport. The company provides aeronautical services such as landing and parking, passenger service, and aircraft service charges. It also offers non-aeronautical services, including concession revenues, office and property rentals, hotel and restaurant businesses, ground services, and security services. AOT was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): International Passenger Traffic Exceeds The Company's Target.

We raise our fair value to Bt70.00 (from Bt60.00), while maintaining our required return at 2.4%, despite our updated macro assumptions of a risk...

Krungthai XSpring

On the Ground - Thailand

Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Henry Soediarko

AOT Vs. Hospitals: The Case of Insurance

Thailand makes health insurance mandatory for international arrivals to protect healthcare budget and reduce costs of uninsured tourists,...

Henry Soediarko

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Become a Utility Play?

Is Airports of Thailand benefiting from tourist spending or others like CP ALL PCL? PSC rate hike not free as AOT expected to use own cash flow...

Henry Soediarko

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): PSC Revenue Growth Offsets KPD Impact

We upgrade to Buy (from Neutral), with a wider upsideto 14% on a higher 12M FV of Bt60.00 (from Bt51.50), based on a lower required return of 2.4%...

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): International Passenger Traffic Exceeds The Company's Target.

We raise our fair value to Bt70.00 (from Bt60.00), while maintaining our required return at 2.4%, despite our updated macro assumptions of a risk...

Krungthai XSpring

On the Ground - Thailand

​Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Henry Soediarko

AOT Vs. Hospitals: The Case of Insurance

​Thailand makes health insurance mandatory for international arrivals to protect healthcare budget and reduce costs of uninsured tourists,...

Henry Soediarko

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Become a Utility Play?

​Is Airports of Thailand benefiting from tourist spending or others like CP ALL PCL? PSC rate hike not free as AOT expected to use own cash flow...

Henry Soediarko

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): PSC Revenue Growth Offsets KPD Impact

We upgrade to Buy (from Neutral), with a wider upsideto 14% on a higher 12M FV of Bt60.00 (from Bt51.50), based on a lower required return of 2.4%...

Krungthai XSpring

Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Thailand makes health insurance mandatory for international arrivals to protect healthcare budget and reduce costs of uninsured tourists,...

Is Airports of Thailand benefiting from tourist spending or others like CP ALL PCL? PSC rate hike not free as AOT expected to use own cash flow...