Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last week, the bears sustained their grip on the local bourse as the benchmark index shed 0.55%, while the MEP lost 0.60%, underperforming the market by 5bps.</li><li>Year to date, the MEP posts a return of 3.54%, outpacing the ASI’s 2.94% return by 59bps.</li><li>The MEP underperformed last week, primarily due to our overweight positions in MTNN (-4.22% WoW) and UBA (-3.56% WoW).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week, the bears sustained their grip on the local bourse as the benchmark index shed 0.55%, while the MEP lost 0.60%, underperforming the market by 5bps.Year to date, the MEP posts a return of 3.54%, outpacing the ASI’s 2.94% return by 59bps.The MEP underperformed last week, primarily due to our overweight positions in MTNN (-4.22% WoW) and UBA (-3.56% WoW).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Model Equity Portfolio - S3:Ep10 - 17-03-25

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Following extensive engagements, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has approved a maximum tariff increase of 50.0% for Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), effective January 20, 2025.</li><li>This marks the first tariff adjustment since 2013 and is deemed essential by the NCC to support infrastructure investments, drive innovation, and improve service quality, network reliability, and coverage for consumers.</li><li>The new tariffs present a significant revenue growth opportunity for telecom operators, prompting a reevaluation of our coverage companies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following extensive engagements, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has approved a maximum tariff increase of 50.0% for Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), effective January 20, 2025.This marks the first tariff adjustment since 2013 and is deemed essential by the NCC to support infrastructure investments, drive innovation, and improve service quality, network reliability, and coverage for consumers.The new tariffs present a significant revenue growth opportunity for telecom operators, prompting a reevaluation of our coverage companies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telecoms Outlook - Tariff Hike Portends Stronger Earnings for Operators

<ul><li>Last week, the local bourse extended gains for the third consecutive week, up 0.21%, while the MEP gained 0.61%, outperforming the benchmark by 40bps.</li><li>Year-to-date, the MEP has returned 32.13% vs the NGX-ASI return 31.68%, outperforming by 45bps.</li><li>The MEP's outperformance was primarily driven by gains in SEPLAT, following the purchase of 22,571 ordinary shares by Tierce Investments Ltd, a company wholly owned by Mr. Udoma Udo Udoma, the board chairman.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week, the local bourse extended gains for the third consecutive week, up 0.21%, while the MEP gained 0.61%, outperforming the benchmark by 40bps.Year-to-date, the MEP has returned 32.13% vs the NGX-ASI return 31.68%, outperforming by 45bps.The MEP's outperformance was primarily driven by gains in SEPLAT, following the purchase of 22,571 ordinary shares by Tierce Investments Ltd, a company wholly owned by Mr. Udoma Udo Udoma, the board chairman.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 30th September 2024

<ul><li>In the previous week, the local bourse extended its bullish momentum, advancing by 0.81%, while the MEP gained 1.08% - outperforming the index by 27bps.</li><li>Year-to-date, the MEP has delivered a return of 31.33%, closely matching the NGX- ASI, which has returned 31.39%.</li><li>The MEP’s performance was driven by renewed interest in GEREGU and MTNN, contributing a combined 102bps.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In the previous week, the local bourse extended its bullish momentum, advancing by 0.81%, while the MEP gained 1.08% - outperforming the index by 27bps.Year-to-date, the MEP has delivered a return of 31.33%, closely matching the NGX- ASI, which has returned 31.39%.The MEP’s performance was driven by renewed interest in GEREGU and MTNN, contributing a combined 102bps.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 23rd September 2024.pdf

United Kingdom

Airtel Africa Plc provides telecommunications and mobile money services across 14 countries in Africa, primarily in East, Central, and West Africa. The company offers a range of services including prepaid and postpaid wireless voice, 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G data services, mobile money, international roaming, and fixed-line telephony. It is headquartered in London, England, and was founded on June 8, 2010.

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Airtel Africa (AAF LN)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

CardinalStone Model Equity Portfolio - S3:Ep10 - 17-03-25

Last week, the bears sustained their grip on the local bourse as the benchmark index shed 0.55%, while the MEP lost 0.60%, underperforming the...

CardinalStone

Telecoms Outlook - Tariff Hike Portends Stronger Earnings for Operators

Following extensive engagements, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has approved a maximum tariff increase of 50.0% for Mobile Network...

CardinalStone

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 30th September 2024

Last week, the local bourse extended gains for the third consecutive week, up 0.21%, while the MEP gained 0.61%, outperforming the benchmark by 40bps.

CardinalStone

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 23rd September 2024.pdf

In the previous week, the local bourse extended its bullish momentum, advancing by 0.81%, while the MEP gained 1.08% - outperforming the index by...

CardinalStone

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