HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Green Tea’s future performance growth is uncertain due to increasing competition, changes in consumer tastes, lack of a secondary growth curve, unsatisfactory table turnover rate and the old menu.</li>
<li>Simply opening more restaurants cannot break through development bottlenecks.Whether shares would perform well after IPO depends on if Green Tea is able to deliver persuasive/sustainable growth story to the market.</li>
<li>The moat of Green Tea is still “fragile”. We think the valuation of Green Tea should be between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajisen-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:990:1" rel="noopener">Ajisen (538 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Green Tea’s future performance growth is uncertain due to increasing competition, changes in consumer tastes, lack of a secondary growth curve, unsatisfactory table turnover rate and the old menu.
Simply opening more restaurants cannot break through development bottlenecks.Whether shares would perform well after IPO depends on if Green Tea is able to deliver persuasive/sustainable growth story to the market.
The moat of Green Tea is still “fragile”. We think the valuation of Green Tea should be between Haidilao (6862 HK) and Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Ajisen (538 HK).


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Lack of an Attractive "Growth Story"

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><strong>Hong Kong market is range bound with conglomerates showing strength over the last few weeks.  As the CNY/HKD strengthens the A/H premium should narrow.</strong></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunevision-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:110:1" rel="noopener"><strong>SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK)</strong></a><strong> reported good results on the back of increased demand driven by the AI sector. </strong>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings <strong>(9987</strong> HK)</a>,<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)</a> reported flat sales and an increase in operating profit in a difficult fast food retail environment in China.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market is range bound with conglomerates showing strength over the last few weeks.  As the CNY/HKD strengthens the A/H premium should narrow.

SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) reported good results on the back of increased demand driven by the AI sector. 


Yum China Holdings (9987 HK),Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) reported flat sales and an increase in operating profit in a difficult fast food retail environment in China.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We believe the company is well positioned in China's rapidly growing pizza market thanks to its strong brand and superior store economics. </li>
<li>Despite stock rally post 1H23 results, market still underestimates its earnings for both near and long term. We expect RMB250 million net profit for 2024 versus break-even by consensus.  </li>
<li>History suggests DPC Dash has recipe for attractive stock return driven by its highly visible growth that can shield it from macro situations, which is desperately needed by China investors.  </li>
</ul>


We believe the company is well positioned in China's rapidly growing pizza market thanks to its strong brand and superior store economics. 
Despite stock rally post 1H23 results, market still underestimates its earnings for both near and long term. We expect RMB250 million net profit for 2024 versus break-even by consensus.  
History suggests DPC Dash has recipe for attractive stock return driven by its highly visible growth that can shield it from macro situations, which is desperately needed by China investors.  


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Jiumaojiu International / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a> is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading on Wednesday, 15 January. Jiumaojiu priced its IPO at HK$6.60 per share (at the top-end of the range). </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jiumaojiu-international-ipo-valuation-reasonable-for-the-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our valuation note</a>, we stated that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding.</p></div></div></div>

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading on Wednesday, 15 January. Jiumaojiu priced its IPO at HK$6.60 per share (at the top-end of the range). In our valuation note, we stated that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding.

Jiumaojiu: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a> is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds of HK$1,910.6 million ($245 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. </p><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jiumaojiu-international-ipo-initiation-eat-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that Jiumaojiu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives and could prove attractive at the right valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential.</p></div></div></div>

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds of HK$1,910.6 million ($245 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. In our initiation note, we stated that Jiumaojiu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives and could prove attractive at the right valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential.

Jiumaojiu International IPO: Valuation Reasonable for the Growth

Hong Kong

Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company that operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants, primarily selling Japanese ramen and Japanese-style dishes under the Ajisen brand in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company also manufactures and sells packaged noodles and related products. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Yau Tong, Hong Kong.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Ajisen (China) (538 HK)

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Lack of an Attractive "Growth Story"

Green Tea faces uncertain future growth due to competition/changing tastes/operational challenges.Valuation should be between Haidilao and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)

Hong market should benefit from a stronger CNY/HKD as the Fed begins to cut rates. SUNeVision is benefiting from increased demand from the AI...

David Mudd

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

We believe the company has the right recipe to become another multibagger in China's catering sector thanks to its strong brand and superior store...

Eric Chen

Jiumaojiu: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading...

Arun George

Jiumaojiu International IPO: Valuation Reasonable for the Growth

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Lack of an Attractive "Growth Story"

​Green Tea faces uncertain future growth due to competition/changing tastes/operational challenges.Valuation should be between Haidilao and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)

Hong market should benefit from a stronger CNY/HKD as the Fed begins to cut rates. SUNeVision is benefiting from increased demand from the AI...

David Mudd

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

We believe the company has the right recipe to become another multibagger in China's catering sector thanks to its strong brand and superior store...

Eric Chen

Jiumaojiu: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading...

Arun George

Jiumaojiu International IPO: Valuation Reasonable for the Growth

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds...

Arun George

Green Tea faces uncertain future growth due to competition/changing tastes/operational challenges.Valuation should be between Haidilao and...