Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Akatsuki (3932): Games drive 80% of revenue at 30% margins; hidden ¥30bn investment portfolio implies negative EV; Brandes Investment Partners took 5.3% stake. </li>
<li>SAXA Holdings (6675): Cash-generative but low-growth hardware; weak margins despite asset backing; property sale planned; Asset Value Investors pushing capital allocation reform. </li>
<li>Subaru Enterprise (9632): Stable margins but JFTC probe clouds outlook; ¥940mn loss booked; Simplex Asset Management targeting parent-subsidiary discount.</li>
</ul>


Akatsuki (3932): Games drive 80% of revenue at 30% margins; hidden ¥30bn investment portfolio implies negative EV; Brandes Investment Partners took 5.3% stake. 
SAXA Holdings (6675): Cash-generative but low-growth hardware; weak margins despite asset backing; property sale planned; Asset Value Investors pushing capital allocation reform. 
Subaru Enterprise (9632): Stable margins but JFTC probe clouds outlook; ¥940mn loss booked; Simplex Asset Management targeting parent-subsidiary discount.


Japan Activism Briefs | Akatsuki, SAXA, Subaru Enterprises

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,057m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Skylark, Disco, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec, Japan Tobacco.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,057m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Skylark, Disco, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec, Japan Tobacco.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 26th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Disco

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Growth continues to dominate: In July 2019 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screening-the-silk-road-q3-2019-small-mid-cap-garp-zulu-warrior-screening" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)</a>, we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of growth remaining dominant in investment style. The pirouette in Central Bank policies continues to see a reversal being delayed. We expect the bias towards growth style stocks to remain as we enter 2020. However, our analysis suggests a reversal in 2020 is increasing in probabilities.Our GARP selection screening continued to work well in H2 2019: Our H2 2019 basket delivered an average return of +16.7% (similar to H1 2019’s 16.6%), versus the MSCI Asia Pacific’s (Inc. Japan) +8.6% over the same period.Our screen offers up 6 unique liquid names that offer good alpha generation opportunity. One stock remains in this list from our July review.Subscribe via Smartkarma (or utilise your subscription) to learn how this screening review identified value in one stock in January 2019, that returned shareholders +87% in 6-months and another in July that returned +70% and gain greater insight into which names hold strong potential to deliver returns.

Growth continues to dominate: In July 2019 (Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening), we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of growth remaining dominant in investment style. The pirouette in Central Bank policies continues to see a reversal being delayed. We expect the bias towards growth style stocks to remain as we enter 2020. However, our analysis suggests a reversal in 2020 is increasing in probabilities.Our GARP selection screening continued to work well in H2 2019: Our H2 2019 basket delivered an average return of +16.7% (similar to H1 2019’s 16.6%), versus the MSCI Asia Pacific’s (Inc. Japan) +8.6% over the same period.Our screen offers up 6 unique liquid names that offer good alpha generation opportunity. One stock remains in this list from our July review.Subscribe via Smartkarma (or utilise your subscription) to learn how this screening review identified value in one stock in January 2019, that returned shareholders +87% in 6-months and another in July that returned +70% and gain greater insight into which names hold strong potential to deliver returns.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'.


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

Focus on Smaller Cap Value Names, Altay Capital

Altay Capital

Focus on Smaller Cap Value Names

Long time value investor. Long/Short portfolio that’s always net long (between 30-80%). I have extensive experience in the video game industry as I founded a leading media company in the space, which I have since exited after an acquisition. Gaming companies only make up ~15% of my portfolio, but its a sector where I believe I have an edge. A newsletter about value investing! Mostly focus on smaller cap value names that aren't widely covered.

<ul><li>Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932) is a net-net Japanese video game developer with 10 years of profitability.</li><li>They’re undergoing a big transformation in an effort to better compete globally by investing enormous amounts into their core development capabilities and increasing their average budget per game 3-6x.</li><li>They recently formed a capital alliance with Sony (6758) and Koei Tecmo (TYO 3635) with each taking a 10% and 8% stake respectively.</li></ul>

Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932) is a net-net Japanese video game developer with 10 years of profitability.They’re undergoing a big transformation in an effort to better compete globally by investing enormous amounts into their core development capabilities and increasing their average budget per game 3-6x.They recently formed a capital alliance with Sony (6758) and Koei Tecmo (TYO 3635) with each taking a 10% and 8% stake respectively.

Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932): A $188M Net Net Japanese Game Developer

Japan

Akatsuki Inc. develops entertainment game applications for mobile devices, some of which are jointly developed with other companies.

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Akatsuki Inc (3932 JP)

Japan Activism Briefs | Akatsuki, SAXA, Subaru Enterprises

Three under-the-radar Japanese small caps, hidden assets, activist catalysts and governance inflection points — deep value, balance sheet...

Mark Chadwick

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 26th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Skylark,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Growth continues to dominate: In July 2019 (Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening), we re-examined the divide...

David Lepper

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932): A $188M Net Net Japanese Game Developer

hey recently formed a capital alliance with Sony (6758) and Koei Tecmo (TYO 3635) with each taking a 10% and 8% stake respectively.

Altay Capital

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