Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months.</li>
<li>A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share.</li>
<li>Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow – Chariot has raised US$16.1 mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months.
A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share.
Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow – Chariot has raised US$16.1 mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.


<ul>
<li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum has been priced at C$0.20 per subscription receipt.</li>
<li>Each subscription receipt will convert into a unit comprising one share and one warrant with an exercise price of C$0.25 per share valid for 36 months.</li>
<li>On completion of the acquisition, Criterium will hold 1,050 bbl/d long life and high netback production and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua). </li>
</ul>


Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum has been priced at C$0.20 per subscription receipt.
Each subscription receipt will convert into a unit comprising one share and one warrant with an exercise price of C$0.25 per share valid for 36 months.
On completion of the acquisition, Criterium will hold 1,050 bbl/d long life and high netback production and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua). 


Norway

Aker BP ASA operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company focuses on the exploration and development of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf.

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Aker BP ASA (AKRBP NO)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/07/2023

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 07/07/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum...

Auctus Advisors

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/07/2023

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 07/07/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum...

Auctus Advisors

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...