Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;</li>
<li>PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;</li>
<li>Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. </li>
</ul>


C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 


[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Promising Ph3 data of cadonilimab in 1L GC, especially for patients with low PD-L1 expression.</li><li>The interim Ph3 (NCT05008783) data of cadonilimab in 1L GC was recently released at the AACR meeting.</li><li>With a median follow-up of 18.7 months, cadonilimab + chemo (XELOX) extended the mOS by 4.2 months for the 610 ITT patients and reduced the risk of death by 38% (mOS 15.0 vs 10.8 months, HR=0.62, P&lt;0.001).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Promising Ph3 data of cadonilimab in 1L GC, especially for patients with low PD-L1 expression.The interim Ph3 (NCT05008783) data of cadonilimab in 1L GC was recently released at the AACR meeting.With a median follow-up of 18.7 months, cadonilimab + chemo (XELOX) extended the mOS by 4.2 months for the 610 ITT patients and reduced the risk of death by 38% (mOS 15.0 vs 10.8 months, HR=0.62, P&lt;0.001).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Akeso (9926 HK) - Promising Ph3 Data of Cadonilimab in 1L GC

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Akeso Biopharma Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104's commercialization potential on other indications was "overdrawn" in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. </li>
<li>The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.</li>
<li>If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.</li>
</ul>


Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104's commercialization potential on other indications was "overdrawn" in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. 
The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.
If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.


Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$155m from its primary placement.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the deal would be geared towards R&amp;D expenditure for its preclinical programs, expediting clinical trials, and towards commercializing its existing approved products.</li>
<li>Accounting for 3% of shares outstanding, and representing 5.7 days of its three month ADV, the deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest.</li>
</ul>



Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise US$155m from its primary placement.
Proceeds from the deal would be geared towards R&amp;D expenditure for its preclinical programs, expediting clinical trials, and towards commercializing its existing approved products.
Accounting for 3% of shares outstanding, and representing 5.7 days of its three month ADV, the deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest.


Akeso Inc Placement - A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong

<ul><li>In FY23, Akeso recorded RMB4.53bn in revenue, including RMB1.63bn from product sales and RMB2.92bn from license income relevant to AK112 (PD1/VEGF).</li><li>Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved RMB1.36bn in sales in FY23, surpassing the Company’s initial guidance of RMB1.2-1.3bn.</li><li>In 2H23, AK104 recorded RMB752mn sales, +24% HoH, even with the impact of challenging regulatory environment in China in 2H23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In FY23, Akeso recorded RMB4.53bn in revenue, including RMB1.63bn from product sales and RMB2.92bn from license income relevant to AK112 (PD1/VEGF).Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved RMB1.36bn in sales in FY23, surpassing the Company’s initial guidance of RMB1.2-1.3bn.In 2H23, AK104 recorded RMB752mn sales, +24% HoH, even with the impact of challenging regulatory environment in China in 2H23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Akeso (9926 HK) - Expect Another Fruitful Year in 2024

China

Akeso Inc. operates operatesa s a biotech company. The compnay develops treatments and therapies for various types of diseases. Akeso serves cutomers worldwide

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Akeso (9926 HK) - Promising Ph3 Data of Cadonilimab in 1L GC

Promising Ph3 data of cadonilimab in 1L GC, especially for patients with low PD-L1 expression. The interim Ph3 (NCT05008783) data of cadonilimab in...

CMB International

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Akeso's valuation has somewhat priced in the success of AK112’s head-to-head trial with KEYTRUDA.But if AK112 fails in critical trials, it will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Inc Placement - A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise US$155m from its primary placement. Representing 5.7 days of its three month ADV, the deal would...

Clarence Chu

Akeso (9926 HK) - Expect Another Fruitful Year in 2024

In FY23, Akeso recorded RMB4.53bn in revenue, including RMB1.63bn from product sales and RMB2.92bn from license income relevant to AK112 (PD1/VEGF).

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

​Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Akeso (9926 HK) - Promising Ph3 Data of Cadonilimab in 1L GC

Promising Ph3 data of cadonilimab in 1L GC, especially for patients with low PD-L1 expression. The interim Ph3 (NCT05008783) data of cadonilimab in...

CMB International

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Akeso's valuation has somewhat priced in the success of AK112’s head-to-head trial with KEYTRUDA.But if AK112 fails in critical trials, it will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Inc Placement - A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise US$155m from its primary placement. Representing 5.7 days of its three month ADV, the deal would...

Clarence Chu

Akeso (9926 HK) - Expect Another Fruitful Year in 2024

In FY23, Akeso recorded RMB4.53bn in revenue, including RMB1.63bn from product sales and RMB2.92bn from license income relevant to AK112 (PD1/VEGF).

CMB International

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...