Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;</li>
<li>With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;</li>
<li>The big question is the price elasticity <em>following</em> Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.</li>
</ul>


Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.


What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/LI US /XPEV US/NIO US: China and the EU have launched negotiations on electric vehicle tariffs (///////)</li>
<li>BEKE US: Existing Home Sales Increase 61% YoY in the 26th Week of 2024, Expected to Increase 19% YoY in June (+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/ NIO US/ XPEV US/ LI US/1211 HK/300207 SZ/300750 SZ:  Xiaomi's third model was said to be a low priced model, targeting low tier cities .(/////////////)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/LI US /XPEV US/NIO US: China and the EU have launched negotiations on electric vehicle tariffs (///////)
BEKE US: Existing Home Sales Increase 61% YoY in the 26th Week of 2024, Expected to Increase 19% YoY in June (+)
1810 HK/ NIO US/ XPEV US/ LI US/1211 HK/300207 SZ/300750 SZ:  Xiaomi's third model was said to be a low priced model, targeting low tier cities .(/////////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/BEKE/1810HK/300207SZ/300750SZ/LKNCY/9926HK/MNSO/600519CH

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;</li>
<li>Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; </li>
<li>However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;
Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; 
However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.0bn this week, on small two-way volumes. Energy, banks, utilities, tech all saw inflows. </li>
<li>It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, or upcoming Third Plenum policy...</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.0bn this week, on small two-way volumes. Energy, banks, utilities, tech all saw inflows. 
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, or upcoming Third Plenum policy...
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 June 2024); Energy/Utes/Banks/Tech Bought Bigly

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.</li>
<li>Jacobio is a good target for potential M&amp;A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.</li>
<li>There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.</li>
</ul>


One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.
Jacobio is a good target for potential M&amp;A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.
There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

China

Akeso Inc. operates operatesa s a biotech company. The compnay develops treatments and therapies for various types of diseases. Akeso serves cutomers worldwide

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/BEKE/1810HK/300207SZ/300750SZ/LKNCY/9926HK/MNSO/600519CH

China and the EU are in talks to negotiate electric vehicle tariffs, while Xiaomi plans to release a low-priced model targeting low tier cities....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 June 2024); Energy/Utes/Banks/Tech Bought Bigly

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND saw HUGE net buying this past week in Energy, Banks, Tech, and Utilities. SOEs saw strong flows. May be coming in front of...

Travis Lundy

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

​Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/BEKE/1810HK/300207SZ/300750SZ/LKNCY/9926HK/MNSO/600519CH

​China and the EU are in talks to negotiate electric vehicle tariffs, while Xiaomi plans to release a low-priced model targeting low tier cities....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 June 2024); Energy/Utes/Banks/Tech Bought Bigly

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND saw HUGE net buying this past week in Energy, Banks, Tech, and Utilities. SOEs saw strong flows. May be coming in front of...

Travis Lundy

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

​The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

China and the EU are in talks to negotiate electric vehicle tariffs, while Xiaomi plans to release a low-priced model targeting low tier cities....

The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...