Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Koninklijke Bam Groep Nv / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance period • Shell | robust downstream margins and upstream volumes offset exploration write-down • Fagron | marginal downward outlook adjustment due to industry wide IV bag recall • BAM Group | acquires A.Hak for EUR 504m, strengthening position in energy and water infrastructure • E-commerce & Logistics | last mile shift towards OOH in the UK accelerates</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance period • Shell | robust downstream margins and upstream volumes offset exploration write-down • Fagron | marginal downward outlook adjustment due to industry wide IV bag recall • BAM Group | acquires A.Hak for EUR 504m, strengthening position in energy and water infrastructure • E-commerce & Logistics | last mile shift towards OOH in the UK accelerates

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | agreement to sell SE Asian Deco business to Nippon Paints • Ziggo Group | Antwerp court tightens rules around Telenet’s “fiber” marketing • Corporate agenda | week 41 - 46</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | agreement to sell SE Asian Deco business to Nippon Paints • Ziggo Group | Antwerp court tightens rules around Telenet’s “fiber” marketing • Corporate agenda | week 41 - 46

AXTA US - What's News in Amsterdam - 5 October (AkzoNobel | Ziggo Group | Corporate agenda)

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.</li>
<li>The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.</li>
<li>In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07</li>
</ul>


Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.
The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.
In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07


What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

<ul>
<li>Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).</li>
<li>Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.</li>
<li>Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. </li>
</ul>


Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).
Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. 


Netherlands

Akzo Nobel N.V. manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company offers decorative paints and coatings, surfactants, polymer, pulp and paper, bleaching and oxidizing, salt-chlorine, and other chemical products. Akzo Nobel serves customers worldwide.

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA NA)

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance...

The IDEA!

AXTA US - What's News in Amsterdam - 5 October (AkzoNobel | Ziggo Group | Corporate agenda)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | agreement to sell SE Asian Deco business to Nippon Paints • Ziggo Group | Antwerp court tightens rules around...

The IDEA!

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.

The IDEA!

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