Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AkzoNobel is closely examining the potential acquisition of BASF’s coatings division, valued at approximately EUR 6bn, according to three anonymous sources cited by Dutch financial daily Het Financieele Dagblad (“FD”).</li>
<li>Strategically, BASF’s automotive coatings and metal pretreatment operations would complement AkzoNobel’s existing industrial coatings business.</li>
<li>However, a significant hurdle remains: securing shareholder approval for such a major transaction, given AkzoNobel’s current market value of EUR 9.5bn and an adjusted leverage ratio of 2.8 times. </li>
</ul>


AkzoNobel is closely examining the potential acquisition of BASF’s coatings division, valued at approximately EUR 6bn, according to three anonymous sources cited by Dutch financial daily Het Financieele Dagblad (“FD”).
Strategically, BASF’s automotive coatings and metal pretreatment operations would complement AkzoNobel’s existing industrial coatings business.
However, a significant hurdle remains: securing shareholder approval for such a major transaction, given AkzoNobel’s current market value of EUR 9.5bn and an adjusted leverage ratio of 2.8 times. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | impairment on Russian assets looks inevitable • ASML Holding | strongly raises FY26 net sales and gross margin outlook • ASML Holding / ASM Int’l / Besi | SEMI strongly increases global semiconductor equipment sales forecast • TomTom | reiterates FY26 outlook as well as return to revenue growth from 2027 onwards • Bnode | political deadlock over proposed savings on management contract with bpost • Bnode | bpost launches personal locker rentals via its Bbox network • E-commerce and Logistics | MediaMarkt partners with Wolt for flash delivery in Germany</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | impairment on Russian assets looks inevitable • ASML Holding | strongly raises FY26 net sales and gross margin outlook • ASML Holding / ASM Int’l / Besi | SEMI strongly increases global semiconductor equipment sales forecast • TomTom | reiterates FY26 outlook as well as return to revenue growth from 2027 onwards • Bnode | political deadlock over proposed savings on management contract with bpost • Bnode | bpost launches personal locker rentals via its Bbox network • E-commerce and Logistics | MediaMarkt partners with Wolt for flash delivery in Germany

<ul><li>Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst?</li><li>A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the investment case for AkzoNobel just weeks before shareholders vote on one of the sector's most consequential transactions.</li><li> While market attention remains focused on the proposed combination with Axalta, recent developments raise broader questions around value realisation, capital allocation and the board's strategic flexibility.</li></ul>

Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst?A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the investment case for AkzoNobel just weeks before shareholders vote on one of the sector's most consequential transactions. While market attention remains focused on the proposed combination with Axalta, recent developments raise broader questions around value realisation, capital allocation and the board's strategic flexibility.

AkzoNobel Nippon Paint’s proposed offer just added a fresh coat of value

Netherlands

Akzo Nobel N.V. manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company offers decorative paints and coatings, surfactants, polymer, pulp and paper, bleaching and oxidizing, salt-chlorine, and other chemical products. Akzo Nobel serves customers worldwide.

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA NA)

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora:...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Strategically, BASF’s automotive coatings and metal pretreatment operations would complement AkzoNobel’s existing industrial coatings business.

The IDEA!

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

bpost SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | impairment on Russian assets looks inevitable • ASML Holding | strongly raises FY26 net sales and gross margin...

The IDEA!

AkzoNobel Nippon Paint’s proposed offer just added a fresh coat of value

Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst? A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the...

The IDEA!

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