Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...</li>
<li>...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.</li>
<li>Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...
...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.
Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.


Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)</li>
<li>Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."</li>
<li>SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)
Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."
SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.


<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

United States

iShares Russell 2000 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. The ETF holds mid and small-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in the smallest 2000 companies from the Russell 3000 Index. The ETF weights the holdings by market capitalization and rebalances annually.

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iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM US)

April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

Vermilion Research

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs

Vermilion Research

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

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