Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>EM Fund managers continue to add to MENA allocations, yet underweights have increased to near record levels.</li>
<li>Saudi Arabia has been the driver of the recent allocation spike, with the average GEM fund allocation now at 1%</li>
<li>Fund activity over the last 6-months has favoured Qatar National Bank and Saudi Tadawul Group, with both seeing the percentage of funds invested increase.</li>
</ul>


EM Fund managers continue to add to MENA allocations, yet underweights have increased to near record levels.
Saudi Arabia has been the driver of the recent allocation spike, with the average GEM fund allocation now at 1%
Fund activity over the last 6-months has favoured Qatar National Bank and Saudi Tadawul Group, with both seeing the percentage of funds invested increase.


<ul>
<li>Average returns among GEM active managers came in at -7.02% for April, lower than the MSCI EM Index by -1.46% with 21.2% of funds outperforming.</li>
<li>This year’s underperformance of -3.69% ranks as the worst start to the year for over a decade, worse than the first 4 months of both 2009 (-2.70%) and 2015 (-2.71%).</li>
<li>Russian Financials (overweight) and Saudi Arabian Financials (underweight) accounted for nearly 1% of the performance deficit, with Singapore Comm’ Services, Taiwan Technology and Indian Utilities further dragging on relative returns.</li>
</ul>


Average returns among GEM active managers came in at -7.02% for April, lower than the MSCI EM Index by -1.46% with 21.2% of funds outperforming.
This year’s underperformance of -3.69% ranks as the worst start to the year for over a decade, worse than the first 4 months of both 2009 (-2.70%) and 2015 (-2.71%).
Russian Financials (overweight) and Saudi Arabian Financials (underweight) accounted for nearly 1% of the performance deficit, with Singapore Comm’ Services, Taiwan Technology and Indian Utilities further dragging on relative returns.


GEM Fund Performance.  April Compounds Woes for Active Managers

<ul>
<li>Saudi Arabia overtakes China is the largest country underweight among EM active investors.</li>
<li>Despite exposure among active managers reaching all-time highs and new funds entering the market, index weights are outpacing active increases.</li>
<li>Nearly 3/4 of the 246 funds in our analysis are still without Saudi Arabia exposure. In our view, the rising ownership trend has a long way to run.</li>
</ul>


Saudi Arabia overtakes China is the largest country underweight among EM active investors.
Despite exposure among active managers reaching all-time highs and new funds entering the market, index weights are outpacing active increases.
Nearly 3/4 of the 246 funds in our analysis are still without Saudi Arabia exposure. In our view, the rising ownership trend has a long way to run.


Saudi Arabia:  Takes Underweight Crown from China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

<ul>
<li>MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers</li>
<li>Only half of active managers have exposure to the region, less than 3% overweight.</li>
<li>Al Rajhi Bank is the investor favourite, though all stocks remain underinvested vs benchmark</li>
</ul>


MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers
Only half of active managers have exposure to the region, less than 3% overweight.
Al Rajhi Bank is the investor favourite, though all stocks remain underinvested vs benchmark


Saudi Arabia

Al Rajhi Bank provides banking services. The Bank offers services such as credit cards, insurance, car finance, loans, online and phone banking, and current accounts. Al Rajhi Bank serves customers in Saudi Arabia.

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Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB)

M.E.N.A Momentum

The MENA region has strong momentum in two distinct areas. As investment levels rise to record levels, so too does the net underweight versus the...

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GEM Fund Performance. April Compounds Woes for Active Managers

It has been one of the worst starts to the year for active EM managers in over a decade. We analyze recent performance, attribution and how this...

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Saudi Arabia: Takes Underweight Crown from China

Saudi Arabia overtakes China is the largest country underweight among EM active investors. Despite exposure among managers reaching all-time...

Steven Holden

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

Record MENA Underweight

MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers. Only half of active EM managers are exposed to the region and less than...

Steven Holden

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