Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Alam Sutera's (ASRI) FY 2020 results were much weaker than expected. In our view, the lack of sales to China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) and the challenging real estate market have dealt a severe one-two punch to the company. The financial risk profile has become very stressed, with astronomically high leverage and near-zero coverage ratios. Liquidity is barely adequate for the next 12 months. We are hopeful of a turnaround in 2021, driven by the improvement in the operating environment, as reflected by the surge in marketing sales in Q1/21. However, we do not expect ASRI's operating performance to return to the 2019 level in the near term on account of CFLD's financial difficulties, with this company contributing a third of ASRI’s sales. The company’s future will hinge on its ability to refinance the USD 2022 Notes, of which USD 46.6 mn is outstanding. Our base case is that ASRI will be able to obtain financing to redeem these Notes. ASRI's key credit support stems from its large and clean land bank.

  Alam Sutera's (ASRI) FY 2020 results were much weaker than expected. In our view, the lack of sales to China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) and the challenging real estate market have dealt a severe one-two punch to the company. The financial risk profile has become very stressed, with astronomically high leverage and near-zero coverage ratios. Liquidity is barely adequate for the next 12 months.   We are hopeful of a turnaround in 2021, driven by the improvement in the operating environment, as reflected by the surge in marketing sales in Q1/21. However, we do not expect ASRI's operating performance to return to the 2019 level in the near term on account of CFLD's financial difficulties, with this company contributing a third of ASRI’s sales.   The company’s future will hinge on its ability to refinance the USD 2022 Notes, of which USD 46.6 mn is outstanding. Our base case is that ASRI will be able to obtain financing to redeem these Notes. ASRI's key credit support stems from its large and clean land bank. 

Alam Sutera - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is an Indonesia-based integrated property developer focused on residential, commercial, and mixed-use developments, including shopping centers, recreational areas, and hotels. The company's core activities involve the construction and management of these properties, with significant projects in areas like Serpong and Tangerang. It was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ)

Alam Sutera - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

Alam Sutera's (ASRI) FY 2020 results were much weaker than expected. In our view, the lack of sales to China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) and...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

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