Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global asset markets continue to look through the Iran War</li>
<li>US technical indicators and Dollar weakness mean we remain cautiously optimistic</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global asset markets continue to look through the Iran War
US technical indicators and Dollar weakness mean we remain cautiously optimistic


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.</li>
<li>Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.
Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).


Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Japan and US Central Banks continue to add fuel to the monetary fire</li>
<li>China consumption weakness is likely to spur a tangible response in the New Year</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Japan and US Central Banks continue to add fuel to the monetary fire
China consumption weakness is likely to spur a tangible response in the New Year


Overview #44 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.</li>
<li>Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.</li>
<li>Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.</li>
</ul>


Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.
Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.
Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.


The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

United States

Albemarle Corporation produces specialty and fine chemicals.  The Company's chemicals are additives to or intermediates for plastics, polymers and elastomers, cleaning products, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, drilling compounds, and biocides.  Albemarle produces the majority of its products in the United States.

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Albemarle Corp (ALB US)

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Overview #56 - Back to the Races?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We take a look at Oil, Commodities and the strong move in US indices

Rikki Malik

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Breakouts Just Keep Coming $SPX $ARKX $ARKQ $XLY $XRT $ITB $IWO $QTUM $MCHI $XLP; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight $XLB $GDX $XME $REMX; Still...

Vermilion Research

Overview #44 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Banks continue to aid the commodity trade while China takes aim...

Rikki Malik

The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

The most active lithium carbonate contract surged 9% to 95,200 yuan ($13,400) per ton today following a positive forecast from Ganfeng Lithium...

Rikki Malik

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