Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lithium oversupply of ~20% persists despite recent mine headlines, keeping long-term price pressure intact.</li>
<li>CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) remains cushioned, with lower lithium prices enhancing its cost advantage.</li>
<li>Albemarle (ALB US) and other upstream miners face margin squeeze as oversupply caps near-term upside.</li>
</ul>


Lithium oversupply of ~20% persists despite recent mine headlines, keeping long-term price pressure intact.
CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) remains cushioned, with lower lithium prices enhancing its cost advantage.
Albemarle (ALB US) and other upstream miners face margin squeeze as oversupply caps near-term upside.


Lithium Oversupply Persists: CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) Cushioned, Albemarle (ALB US) Under Pressure

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.</li>
<li>While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.</li>
</ul>


After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.
Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.
While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.


Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iperionx-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30710:1" rel="noopener">IperionX Limited (IPX AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/patriot-battery-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36822:1" rel="noopener">Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iperionx-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30710:1" rel="noopener">IperionX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle</a>, while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/patriot-battery-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36822:1" rel="noopener">Patriot Battery Metals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amg-critical-materials-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40462:1" rel="noopener">AMG Critical Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23860:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas</a>.</li>
</ul>



IperionX Limited (IPX AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) and Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN) will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.
The largest inflows will be in IperionX, Iluka Resources and Albemarle, while the largest outflows will be from Patriot Battery Metals, AMG Critical Materials, Shenghe Resources and Lithium Americas.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.</li>
<li>Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.</li>
<li>Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.
Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.
Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.


Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

United States

Albemarle Corporation produces specialty and fine chemicals.  The Company's chemicals are additives to or intermediates for plastics, polymers and elastomers, cleaning products, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, drilling compounds, and biocides.  Albemarle produces the majority of its products in the United States.

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Albemarle Corp (ALB US)

Lithium Oversupply Persists: CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) Cushioned, Albemarle (ALB US) Under Pressure

Nikkei Asia reports CATL’s Jianxiawo mine will restart sooner than expected, pushing lithium carbonate futures down 5.7% to ~70,100 yuan/ton (–22%...

Rahul Jain

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Tianqi rallied ~15% as lithium futures rebounded ~17% from ¥60,000 to ¥70,500/ton after Zangge Mining halted production due to low prices. The...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

The inclusion of IperionX, deletion of Patriot Battery Metals, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a...

Brian Freitas

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lithium Oversupply Persists: CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) Cushioned, Albemarle (ALB US) Under Pressure

Nikkei Asia reports CATL’s Jianxiawo mine will restart sooner than expected, pushing lithium carbonate futures down 5.7% to ~70,100 yuan/ton (–22%...

Rahul Jain

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Tianqi rallied ~15% as lithium futures rebounded ~17% from ¥60,000 to ¥70,500/ton after Zangge Mining halted production due to low prices. The...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

The inclusion of IperionX, deletion of Patriot Battery Metals, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a...

Brian Freitas

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

​Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...