Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.</li>
<li>The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup. </li>
<li>Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.
The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup. 
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of "Day Trading" And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024.</li><li>In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in program, but shy of Wind consensus at 4.5%.</li><li>Online physical goods GMV growth saw a further recovery MoM, with growth stood at 5.0% YoY in 2M25 (2024: 6.5%), which was improved from 3.5% in 4Q24. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024.In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in program, but shy of Wind consensus at 4.5%.Online physical goods GMV growth saw a further recovery MoM, with growth stood at 5.0% YoY in 2M25 (2024: 6.5%), which was improved from 3.5% in 4Q24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 2M25 NBS data shy of consensus, but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Berkshire Hathaway <a href="https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2024ar/2024ar.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Annual Shareholder Letter for 2024</a> was released this weekend. Much was made in Japanese twitter-space of the comments he made on the Japanese trading houses. </li>
<li>He said Berkshire Hathaway's admiration of these companies "has consistently grown" and Berkshire likes their capital deployment, managements, and their attitude in respect to investors. They also pay themselves reasonably.</li>
<li>He mentioned Berkshire will increase their stakes somewhat in the trading houses "over time." That comment deserves some exploration, as does the comment about yen funding.</li>
</ul>


The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Letter for 2024 was released this weekend. Much was made in Japanese twitter-space of the comments he made on the Japanese trading houses. 
He said Berkshire Hathaway's admiration of these companies "has consistently grown" and Berkshire likes their capital deployment, managements, and their attitude in respect to investors. They also pay themselves reasonably.
He mentioned Berkshire will increase their stakes somewhat in the trading houses "over time." That comment deserves some exploration, as does the comment about yen funding.


Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see no index changes based on the latest available data. However, there will be some flows in June 2025 due to capping.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see no index changes based on the latest available data. However, there will be some flows in June 2025 due to capping.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: Large Price Swings Needed to Trigger Index Changes

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Market sentiment shifted again this week, with participation in stock gains dropping sharply from last week’s levels.</li>
<li>Option volumes continued to decline from February peaks, though single stocks saw a notable increase in activity on Friday.</li>
<li>We cover stocks with liquid options that have earnings reports in the coming week.</li>
</ul>


Market sentiment shifted again this week, with participation in stock gains dropping sharply from last week’s levels.
Option volumes continued to decline from February peaks, though single stocks saw a notable increase in activity on Friday.
We cover stocks with liquid options that have earnings reports in the coming week.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of "Day Trading" And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

Tech and Consumer Discretionary saw its net buying slow considerably. Finance continues to see widespread buying, and as we approach dividends, the...

Travis Lundy

Internet - 2M25 NBS data shy of consensus, but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise

Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024. In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in...

CMB International

Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I

Today, National Indemnity - BRK's holdco for owning Japanese trading co shares - announced it had upped its stake in each of the five trading...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: Large Price Swings Needed to Trigger Index Changes

China Resource Power and Sunny Optical are the top-ranked potential ADD and potential DEL respectively. Both names require large relative price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

Market sentiment shifted as stock gains saw a drop in participation, while option volumes continued to decline. Earnings reports for stocks with...

John Ley

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52-week Range

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P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of "Day Trading" And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

Tech and Consumer Discretionary saw its net buying slow considerably. Finance continues to see widespread buying, and as we approach dividends, the...

Travis Lundy

Internet - 2M25 NBS data shy of consensus, but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise

Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024. In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in...

CMB International

Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I

Today, National Indemnity - BRK's holdco for owning Japanese trading co shares - announced it had upped its stake in each of the five trading...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: Large Price Swings Needed to Trigger Index Changes

China Resource Power and Sunny Optical are the top-ranked potential ADD and potential DEL respectively. Both names require large relative price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

​Market sentiment shifted as stock gains saw a drop in participation, while option volumes continued to decline. Earnings reports for stocks with...

John Ley

Market sentiment shifted as stock gains saw a drop in participation, while option volumes continued to decline. Earnings reports for stocks with...