Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Alibaba (9988 HK) / Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares sharply higher.</li><li>The Chinese tech conglomerate raised $3.2 billion through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2032, a financing round earmarked for strengthening its AI and cloud infrastructure.</li><li>At the same time, reports surfaced that Alibaba is beginning to deploy in-house AI training chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia’s costly accelerators and signaling a shift toward technological sovereignty in the middle of China’s broader AI race.</li></ul>

Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares sharply higher.The Chinese tech conglomerate raised $3.2 billion through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2032, a financing round earmarked for strengthening its AI and cloud infrastructure.At the same time, reports surfaced that Alibaba is beginning to deploy in-house AI training chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia’s costly accelerators and signaling a shift toward technological sovereignty in the middle of China’s broader AI race.

Alibaba Taps AI Chips, Raises $3.2 Billion, & Sends Wall Street Buzzing!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. </li>
<li>We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).</li>
<li>Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.</li>
</ul>


Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. 
We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).
Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.


Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety

<ul><li>As geopolitical pressures and regulatory hurdles continue to stifle Nvidia’s ability to deliver its most powerful AI processors to Chinese buyers, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is rapidly stepping in to fill the void.</li><li>The Chinese tech conglomerate has developed a new AI chip that is both more versatile and domestically manufactured—breaking its prior dependency on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.</li><li>This new chip, tailored for a broad range of AI inference tasks, is currently in testing and could offer Chinese enterprises a viable alternative to Nvidia’s downgraded H20 processor, which was specifically built for the Chinese market under export restrictions.</li></ul>

As geopolitical pressures and regulatory hurdles continue to stifle Nvidia’s ability to deliver its most powerful AI processors to Chinese buyers, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is rapidly stepping in to fill the void.The Chinese tech conglomerate has developed a new AI chip that is both more versatile and domestically manufactured—breaking its prior dependency on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.This new chip, tailored for a broad range of AI inference tasks, is currently in testing and could offer Chinese enterprises a viable alternative to Nvidia’s downgraded H20 processor, which was specifically built for the Chinese market under export restrictions.

Alibaba’s AI Chip Leap: A Threat To Nvidia’s China Dominance?

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge

Going short Alibaba (9988 HK) vs. long the Hang Seng Index targets a 12% return by applying a pair trade framework based on quantitative mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Taps AI Chips, Raises $3.2 Billion, & Sends Wall Street Buzzing!

Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares...

Baptista Research

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

Another BIG week of SOUTHBOUND two-way trade flows in HK with a VERY big week of net buying. Alibaba was the big gross traded stock and net bought...

Travis Lundy

Alibaba’s AI Chip Leap: A Threat To Nvidia’s China Dominance?

As geopolitical pressures and regulatory hurdles continue to stifle Nvidia’s ability to deliver its most powerful AI processors to Chinese buyers,...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge

Going short Alibaba (9988 HK) vs. long the Hang Seng Index targets a 12% return by applying a pair trade framework based on quantitative mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Taps AI Chips, Raises $3.2 Billion, & Sends Wall Street Buzzing!

Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares...

Baptista Research

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

Another BIG week of SOUTHBOUND two-way trade flows in HK with a VERY big week of net buying. Alibaba was the big gross traded stock and net bought...

Travis Lundy

Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety

​Asian buybacks, led by HK, CN, KR, are surging. Buybacks more than doubled in H125 relative to full year 24 levels. Top consistent repurchasers:...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Alibaba’s AI Chip Leap: A Threat To Nvidia’s China Dominance?

As geopolitical pressures and regulatory hurdles continue to stifle Nvidia’s ability to deliver its most powerful AI processors to Chinese buyers,...

Baptista Research

Asian buybacks, led by HK, CN, KR, are surging. Buybacks more than doubled in H125 relative to full year 24 levels. Top consistent repurchasers:...