Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.</li>
<li>Consensus seems to be overestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.</li>
<li>At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.</li>
</ul>


With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.
Consensus seems to be overestimating Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.
At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.


Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

<ul>
<li>Bilibili launched a shopping cart feature (Xiaohuangche) recently on its livestreaming platform which enables users to purchase goods while watching a live-stream.</li>
<li>This comes at a time; China’s common prosperity crackdown has set its eyes on livestreaming e-commerce.</li>
<li>Bilibili has been looking at ways to improve its monetisation to reduce losses, but we think the new initiative will likely add further pressure on deteriorating margins.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili launched a shopping cart feature (Xiaohuangche) recently on its livestreaming platform which enables users to purchase goods while watching a live-stream.
This comes at a time; China’s common prosperity crackdown has set its eyes on livestreaming e-commerce.
Bilibili has been looking at ways to improve its monetisation to reduce losses, but we think the new initiative will likely add further pressure on deteriorating margins.


Bilibili Makes a Late Entry into Livestreaming E-Commerce; Timing Is Not Just Right

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (1566215D CH)</a> is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$400-500 million.</li>
<li>The positives are a large addressable market, solid top-line growth and profitability. The key negative is the low margin profile which reflects a fragmented and competitive market. </li>
<li>Overall, we think that the positives outweigh the negatives and this IPO is worth a closer look.   </li>
</ul>



Huitongda (1566215D CH) is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$400-500 million.
The positives are a large addressable market, solid top-line growth and profitability. The key negative is the low margin profile which reflects a fragmented and competitive market. 
Overall, we think that the positives outweigh the negatives and this IPO is worth a closer look.   


Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (1566215D CH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>While the numbers from the growth of member stores look promising, it did not translate to stronger revenue from member stores and HTD did not give a clear explanation.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at PHIP updates and competitive landscape.</li>
</ul>



Huitongda (1566215D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
While the numbers from the growth of member stores look promising, it did not translate to stronger revenue from member stores and HTD did not give a clear explanation.
In this note, we look at PHIP updates and competitive landscape.


Huitongda (汇通达) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Competitive Landscape

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. </li>
<li>The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.</li>
<li>A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  </li>
</ul>


It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. 
The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.
A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  


Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bilibili Makes a Late Entry into Livestreaming E-Commerce; Timing Is Not Just Right

Bilibili launched a shopping cart feature on its livestreaming platform. This comes at a time China’s common prosperity crackdown has set its eyes...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks

Huitongda is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$400-500 million. Overall, we think that the positives outweigh the negatives and this IPO is...

Arun George

Huitongda (汇通达) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Competitive Landscape

Huitongda (1566215D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we look at PHIP updates and competitive...

Clarence Chu

Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

The recent surge in Metaverse have brought VR & AR back into the focus of the market. So is the Metaverse finally ready for prime time or still a...

Evelyn Zhang

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