Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; </li>
<li>Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI's monetization future in China. Alibaba's vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;</li>
<li>Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. </li>
</ul>


After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; 
Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI's monetization future in China. Alibaba's vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;
Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. 


Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue growth rate continued to rise in 3Q25 ending March 2025.</li>
<li>Also, the growth rate of the largest business line, customer management, was close to double digits.</li>
<li>The upside for the next twelve months was narrowed to 18%, as Alibaba’s stock surged after our preview note.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue growth rate continued to rise in 3Q25 ending March 2025.
Also, the growth rate of the largest business line, customer management, was close to double digits.
The upside for the next twelve months was narrowed to 18%, as Alibaba’s stock surged after our preview note.


Alibaba (BABA): 3Q25, Main Business Growth Close to Double Digits

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Several large box trades appeared on the ticker.</li>
<li>Expect more movement on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>'s <strong>Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, </strong>20 February 2025. Option-implied move at the end of this Insight.</li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Several large box trades appeared on the ticker.
Expect more movement on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)'s Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, 20 February 2025. Option-implied move at the end of this Insight.


Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.</li>
<li>That has led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH INDEX</a> and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.
That has led to Alibaba's weight in the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH INDEX and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week - HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.</li>
<li>There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!</li>
</ul>


There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week - HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.
There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA): 3Q25, Main Business Growth Close to Double Digits

Total revenue growth rate continued to rise in 3Q25 ending March 2025. Also, the growth rate of the largest business line, customer management, was...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

Analysis of tailor-made option strategies on Alibaba Group Holding with focus on risk profile and yield. Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, option...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

SOUTHBOUND traded HUGE volumes this past week as the main 3 Hang Seng indices outperformed their A-share main indices quite dramatically, again....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

​Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA): 3Q25, Main Business Growth Close to Double Digits

Total revenue growth rate continued to rise in 3Q25 ending March 2025. Also, the growth rate of the largest business line, customer management, was...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

​Analysis of tailor-made option strategies on Alibaba Group Holding with focus on risk profile and yield. Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, option...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

SOUTHBOUND traded HUGE volumes this past week as the main 3 Hang Seng indices outperformed their A-share main indices quite dramatically, again....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Analysis of tailor-made option strategies on Alibaba Group Holding with focus on risk profile and yield. Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, option...