Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Alibaba reports this week with the options market implying a more moderate move relative to recent earnings reactions. This Insight reviews the volatility backdrop, historical earnings reactions, and post-earnings trends.</li>
<li>Recent earnings history highlights a pattern of larger-than-expected moves despite a typically benign seasonal quarter</li>
<li>Post-Earnings performance shows a tendency for directional follow-through beyond the initial reaction.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba reports this week with the options market implying a more moderate move relative to recent earnings reactions. This Insight reviews the volatility backdrop, historical earnings reactions, and post-earnings trends.
Recent earnings history highlights a pattern of larger-than-expected moves despite a typically benign seasonal quarter
Post-Earnings performance shows a tendency for directional follow-through beyond the initial reaction.


Alibaba (9988.HK) Earnings Preview: Historical Reactions Suggest Upside to Implied Move

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> will announce quarterly results on Thursday, March 19, 7:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time).</li>
<li>Options markets anticipate a significant price move, in-line with history. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.</li>
<li>Gain insight into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba's (9988 HK)</a> earnings-day price history, volatility setup, and volatility dynamics to be ready for the upcoming announcement.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Thursday, March 19, 7:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time).
Options markets anticipate a significant price move, in-line with history. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
Gain insight into Alibaba's (9988 HK) earnings-day price history, volatility setup, and volatility dynamics to be ready for the upcoming announcement.


Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 19 March: Price Dynamics and Expected Moves

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.</li>
<li>The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.</li>
<li>The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and deals this week: Zhipu identified Ox Alpha, OpenAI showed Jalapeno, and Nvidia pursued Hugging Face.</li>
<li>China labs added Qwen, Tencent Hunyuan and Doubao updates, while DeepSeek changed weekend pricing and MiniMax and SenseTime reported results.</li>
<li>Hyperscaler movements covered Nscale, Amazon, Lambda, Volta, Iren, MTN and Yotta. OpenRouter still showed Anthropic ahead in revenue share.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and deals this week: Zhipu identified Ox Alpha, OpenAI showed Jalapeno, and Nvidia pursued Hugging Face.
China labs added Qwen, Tencent Hunyuan and Doubao updates, while DeepSeek changed weekend pricing and MiniMax and SenseTime reported results.
Hyperscaler movements covered Nscale, Amazon, Lambda, Volta, Iren, MTN and Yotta. OpenRouter still showed Anthropic ahead in revenue share.


This Week in AI (Aug 23-29): Ox Alpha and Jalapeno; Nvidia Eyes Hugging Face

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Warsh's "hawkishness" provides an opportunity to pick up precious metals and commodities</li>
<li>The Chinese platforms follow their Western counterparts in the raise and spend game</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Warsh's "hawkishness" provides an opportunity to pick up precious metals and commodities
The Chinese platforms follow their Western counterparts in the raise and spend game


China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba (9988.HK) Earnings Preview: Historical Reactions Suggest Upside to Implied Move

With implied expectations appearing moderate, Alibaba’s recent earnings history and post-event behaviour suggest a setup that may not fully reflect...

John Ley

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 19 March: Price Dynamics and Expected Moves

This Insight examines historical earnings reactions, options-implied moves, volatility crush dynamics, HK/US implied volatility comparison, and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (August 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60%...

David Mudd

This Week in AI (Aug 23-29): Ox Alpha and Jalapeno; Nvidia Eyes Hugging Face

This week in AI: Ox Alpha is Zhipu's GLM-5.3-Flash; OpenAI tests Jalapeno against GB300; Nvidia eyes Hugging Face as Moonshot talks with US cloud...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview #75 – King Canute

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at Warsh's "hawkish" speecha nd why it changes nothing

Rikki Malik

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