Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.</li>
<li>Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  </li>
<li>We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.
Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  
We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.


Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alibaba Group (Alibaba) is escalating its investment in instant commerce to shape a better prospect in long-term e-commerce business development.</li><li>For 1QFY26 (March year-end), we are anticipating a continued acceleration in cloud revenue growth QoQ, a sustained YoY increase in monetization rate of Taobao &amp; Tmall Group (TTG), and ongoing YoY loss reduction of Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC).</li><li>However, we expect the heightened investment in instant commerce to weigh on near-term profitability. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba Group (Alibaba) is escalating its investment in instant commerce to shape a better prospect in long-term e-commerce business development.For 1QFY26 (March year-end), we are anticipating a continued acceleration in cloud revenue growth QoQ, a sustained YoY increase in monetization rate of Taobao &amp; Tmall Group (TTG), and ongoing YoY loss reduction of Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC).However, we expect the heightened investment in instant commerce to weigh on near-term profitability. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Escalated Investment in Instant Commerce Could Weigh on ST Profitability

<ul><li>Alibaba Group (Alibaba) announced the proposed offering of exchangeable bonds by reference to the ordinary share of Alibaba Health (Ali Health) on 3 Jul.</li><li>Alibaba proposed to offer HK$12bn aggregated principal amount of zero coupon bonds due 2032, and intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including investment to support the development of cloud infrastructure and international commerce business.</li><li>Alibaba can elect to satisfy its exchange obligation to holders of the bonds by delivering AH shares, cash, or a combination of cash and AH shares of Ali Health. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba Group (Alibaba) announced the proposed offering of exchangeable bonds by reference to the ordinary share of Alibaba Health (Ali Health) on 3 Jul.Alibaba proposed to offer HK$12bn aggregated principal amount of zero coupon bonds due 2032, and intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including investment to support the development of cloud infrastructure and international commerce business.Alibaba can elect to satisfy its exchange obligation to holders of the bonds by delivering AH shares, cash, or a combination of cash and AH shares of Ali Health. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Offering of Exchangeable Bonds to Support International Business Development

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, next week will see a large number of listings across the region.</li>
<li>On the placements front, given the HK and US holidays and approaching earnings season, there were only a few deals in the past week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, next week will see a large number of listings across the region.
On the placements front, given the HK and US holidays and approaching earnings season, there were only a few deals in the past week.


ECM Weekly (7 July 2025) - IFBH, HDB, Anjoy, FWD, Lens, Fortior, NTT DC, Daehan, Kanzhun, Nykaa, NH

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

Xiaomi's impressive rally, surging implied vols, upcoming earnings and index re-balance call for careful risk management and option positioning...

John Ley

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Alibaba (BABA US) - Escalated Investment in Instant Commerce Could Weigh on ST Profitability

Alibaba Group (Alibaba) is escalating its investment in instant commerce to shape a better prospect in long-term e-commerce business development.

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US) - Offering of Exchangeable Bonds to Support International Business Development

Alibaba Group (Alibaba) announced the proposed offering of exchangeable bonds by reference to the ordinary share of Alibaba Health (Ali Health) on...

CMB International

ECM Weekly (7 July 2025) - IFBH, HDB, Anjoy, FWD, Lens, Fortior, NTT DC, Daehan, Kanzhun, Nykaa, NH

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

​Xiaomi's impressive rally, surging implied vols, upcoming earnings and index re-balance call for careful risk management and option positioning...

John Ley

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Alibaba (BABA US) - Escalated Investment in Instant Commerce Could Weigh on ST Profitability

Alibaba Group (Alibaba) is escalating its investment in instant commerce to shape a better prospect in long-term e-commerce business development.

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US) - Offering of Exchangeable Bonds to Support International Business Development

Alibaba Group (Alibaba) announced the proposed offering of exchangeable bonds by reference to the ordinary share of Alibaba Health (Ali Health) on...

CMB International

ECM Weekly (7 July 2025) - IFBH, HDB, Anjoy, FWD, Lens, Fortior, NTT DC, Daehan, Kanzhun, Nykaa, NH

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Xiaomi's impressive rally, surging implied vols, upcoming earnings and index re-balance call for careful risk management and option positioning...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...