Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Align Technology Inc’s Q4 2023 earnings report demonstrated better-than-expected revenues and earnings, with the company achieving several key milestones, including treating 17 million Invisalign patients, delivering 4.7 million treatments for teenagers and selling over 100,000 iTero scanners.</li><li>Total revenues for the fiscal year exceeded the company's previous outlook, with the non GAAP operating margin exceeding 21% for 2023.</li><li>The company's Q4 revenues were up 6.1% YoY, attributable to increased Systems and Services revenues and higher Clear Aligner volume for teenage and international doctors.</li></ul>

Align Technology Inc’s Q4 2023 earnings report demonstrated better-than-expected revenues and earnings, with the company achieving several key milestones, including treating 17 million Invisalign patients, delivering 4.7 million treatments for teenagers and selling over 100,000 iTero scanners.Total revenues for the fiscal year exceeded the company's previous outlook, with the non GAAP operating margin exceeding 21% for 2023.The company's Q4 revenues were up 6.1% YoY, attributable to increased Systems and Services revenues and higher Clear Aligner volume for teenage and international doctors.

Align Technology: Acquisition of Cubicure

<ul><li>This is our first report on health-tech player, Align Technology Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.</li><li>Notably, 195,000 teens and kids commenced Invisalign clear aligner treatment in Q2, marking a 7% sequential increase and a significant 10% year-over-year growth.</li><li>Total Clear Aligner revenues for Q2 amounted to $832.7 million, reflecting a 5.4% sequential and 4.3% year-over-year increase.</li></ul>

This is our first report on health-tech player, Align Technology Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.Notably, 195,000 teens and kids commenced Invisalign clear aligner treatment in Q2, marking a 7% sequential increase and a significant 10% year-over-year growth.Total Clear Aligner revenues for Q2 amounted to $832.7 million, reflecting a 5.4% sequential and 4.3% year-over-year increase.

Align Technology Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break down below prior weekly support levels in a large bearish engulfing candle last week.</li><li>This breakdown can serve as a tailwind for multi-nationals (especially technology names), commodities, emerging markets, treasuries, and cryptos.</li><li>The dollar is now sitting at a 15 month low. This decline may not be over as the MACD indicator is now crossing down.</li></ul>

After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break down below prior weekly support levels in a large bearish engulfing candle last week.This breakdown can serve as a tailwind for multi-nationals (especially technology names), commodities, emerging markets, treasuries, and cryptos.The dollar is now sitting at a 15 month low. This decline may not be over as the MACD indicator is now crossing down.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Angelalign Technology  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Angelalign’s business model is easily challenged by lower priced similar competing products. Once Angelalign’s products lose price advantage, it would lead to a rapid decline in overall sales performance. </li>
<li>Performance growth could still be under pressure this year due to unsatisfactory demand.The potential price war, further price reduction and increasing selling/marketing expenses would put more pressure on profit margin.</li>
<li>Angelalign hasn’t accumulated enough data size due to few overseas customers, which could lead to product quality issues and slow internationalization progress. There is downside risk due to overvaluation.</li>
</ul>


Angelalign’s business model is easily challenged by lower priced similar competing products. Once Angelalign’s products lose price advantage, it would lead to a rapid decline in overall sales performance. 
Performance growth could still be under pressure this year due to unsatisfactory demand.The potential price war, further price reduction and increasing selling/marketing expenses would put more pressure on profit margin.
Angelalign hasn’t accumulated enough data size due to few overseas customers, which could lead to product quality issues and slow internationalization progress. There is downside risk due to overvaluation.


Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) - 2023 May Not See a Turnaround in Performance

United States

Align Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets the Invisalign System, a method for treating the misalignment of teeth.  The Company's system corrects the misalignment using a series of clear, removable appliances that move teeth to a desired final position.

Align Technology (ALGN US)

Align Technology: Acquisition of Cubicure

Align Technology Inc’s Q4 2023 earnings report demonstrated better-than-expected revenues and earnings, with the company achieving several key...

Baptista Research

Align Technology Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

This is our first report on health-tech player, Align Technology Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as...

Baptista Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 7/17

After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) - 2023 May Not See a Turnaround in Performance

Angelalign has little room to increase selling price due to its business model.Performance growth is under pressure in 2023 for weak demand.Without...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang