Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-management-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)</a>/GIC, and NSR will stop trading after the close on 21 April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> pips <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a> for the index spot. </li>
<li>Positioning has increased (probably not enough), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> has outperformed peers in the short-term. There could be some more upside before the stock underperforms peers.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved National Storage REIT (NSR AU)'s acquisition by Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)/GIC, and NSR will stop trading after the close on 21 April.

National Storage REIT will be replaced by Alkane Resources (ALK AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX). Alkane Resources (ALK AU) pips Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU) for the index spot. 
Positioning has increased (probably not enough), and Alkane Resources (ALK AU) has outperformed peers in the short-term. There could be some more upside before the stock underperforms peers.


ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Alkane Resources (ALK) Replaces National Storage REIT (NSR)

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alkane’s Q226 quarterly activities report revealed record quarterly gold production of 43,663oz AuE (174,652oz pa annualised cf FY26 guidance of 160–175koz) at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,739oz AuE (cf FY26 guidance of A$2,600–2,900/oz), generating A$133m in aggregate site operating cash flows (but could have been A$151m except for the timing of a final payment in January for a shipment of concentrate made in December) to leave the company with cash, bullion and listed investments as at 31 December of A$246m after A$17m in corporate income tax payments. At the mine level, Tomingley had an excellent quarter and produced 1,925oz Au (9.5%) above our prior estimate, while Costerfield’s grade returned to over 10g/t and Björkdal’s to over 1.00g/t. As a result – and in deference to the continued strength in the gold price – we have increased our FY26 EPS estimate by 105.0% and our FY27 estimate by 68.6%.

Alkane’s Q226 quarterly activities report revealed record quarterly gold production of 43,663oz AuE (174,652oz pa annualised cf FY26 guidance of 160–175koz) at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,739oz AuE (cf FY26 guidance of A$2,600–2,900/oz), generating A$133m in aggregate site operating cash flows (but could have been A$151m except for the timing of a final payment in January for a shipment of concentrate made in December) to leave the company with cash, bullion and listed investments as at 31 December of A$246m after A$17m in corporate income tax payments. At the mine level, Tomingley had an excellent quarter and produced 1,925oz Au (9.5%) above our prior estimate, while Costerfield’s grade returned to over 10g/t and Björkdal’s to over 1.00g/t. As a result – and in deference to the continued strength in the gold price – we have increased our FY26 EPS estimate by 105.0% and our FY27 estimate by 68.6%.

Alkane Resources — Material EPS upgrade

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).

Alkane Resources — Re-evaluating the new Alkane

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ducksheet announces a big event with OG of aluminum at the end of the week</li>
<li>West Gold quarterly update shows lower cash balance than expected, with reasons for decrease discussed</li>
<li>Investments and transactions post-merger with Corora impact cash balance and future growth plans discussed</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ducksheet announces a big event with OG of aluminum at the end of the week
West Gold quarterly update shows lower cash balance than expected, with reasons for decrease discussed
Investments and transactions post-merger with Corora impact cash balance and future growth plans discussed

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Director, RaaS Research Group, Research as a Service (RaaS)

RaaS Research Group (RaaS)

Director, RaaS Research Group

Insightful Financial Models and Research Analysis

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Connect to the right investors through smart and insightful financial models and research analysis.

<ul><li>We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new highs in CY24, exceeding US$2,500/oz or a little over A$3,800/oz.</li><li>This environment has been good for producers, particularly the higher cost miners that have the most operating leverage to higher gold prices.</li><li>However, there are early signs that investor interest is starting to flow down through to developers, in particular more advanced ones.</li></ul>

We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new highs in CY24, exceeding US$2,500/oz or a little over A$3,800/oz.This environment has been good for producers, particularly the higher cost miners that have the most operating leverage to higher gold prices.However, there are early signs that investor interest is starting to flow down through to developers, in particular more advanced ones.

Australian Gold Conference 2024 Highlights: Who and What Did We Find Interesting at the Event?

Australia

Alkane Resources Ltd. explores for and produces metals and minerals.  The Company produces gold in the Wyoming I, II and III projects, and the Caloma, Peak Hill and Wellington properties in New South Wales; and zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, yttrium and rare earths at the Dubbo project in New South Wales.

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Alkane Resources (ALK AU)

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Alkane Resources (ALK) Replaces National Storage REIT (NSR)

Alkane Resources will be added to the ASX200 at the close on 21 April. Positioning has increased (but not enough) and the stock has outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Alkane Resources — Material EPS upgrade

Alkane’s Q226 quarterly activities report revealed record quarterly gold production of 43,663oz AuE (174,652oz pa annualised cf FY26 guidance of...

Edison Investment Research

Alkane Resources — Re-evaluating the new Alkane

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group...

Edison Investment Research

Which of these 3 Miners Took Gold?

Ducksheet announces a big event with OG of aluminum at the end of the week West Gold quarterly update shows lower cash balance than expected, with...

Money of Mine

Australian Gold Conference 2024 Highlights: Who and What Did We Find Interesting at the Event?

We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new...

Research as a Service (RaaS)

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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