Director, RaaS Research Group, Research as a Service (RaaS)

RaaS Research Group (RaaS)

Director, RaaS Research Group

Insightful Financial Models and Research Analysis

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Connect to the right investors through smart and insightful financial models and research analysis.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new highs in CY24, exceeding US$2,500/oz or a little over A$3,800/oz.</li><li>This environment has been good for producers, particularly the higher cost miners that have the most operating leverage to higher gold prices.</li><li>However, there are early signs that investor interest is starting to flow down through to developers, in particular more advanced ones.</li></ul>

We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new highs in CY24, exceeding US$2,500/oz or a little over A$3,800/oz.This environment has been good for producers, particularly the higher cost miners that have the most operating leverage to higher gold prices.However, there are early signs that investor interest is starting to flow down through to developers, in particular more advanced ones.

Australian Gold Conference 2024 Highlights: Who and What Did We Find Interesting at the Event?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magnetic-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17051:1" rel="noopener">Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>’s offer (A$1.40 cash per share + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close, the shares are trading in line with the implied value of the default consideration.</li>
</ul>


The Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU) IE considers Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)’s offer (A$1.40 cash per share + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share) fair and reasonable.
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.
This is a done deal. At the last close, the shares are trading in line with the implied value of the default consideration.


Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Scheme Vote on 3 June

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our expectations for potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There have been some important movements in Leaderboard ranks. Currently, we expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and three changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>However, one of the ASX 200 expected ADDs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firefly-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12974:1" rel="noopener">FireFly Metals (FFM AU)</a> is currently involved in a spin-off that could harm its chances of ASX 200 inclusion.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we have presented our expectations for potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2026 index rebal event.
There have been some important movements in Leaderboard ranks. Currently, we expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and three changes for ASX 200.
However, one of the ASX 200 expected ADDs FireFly Metals (FFM AU) is currently involved in a spin-off that could harm its chances of ASX 200 inclusion.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun26: FireFly Metals A Question Mark; Qube Replacements; Rank Changes

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> deleted and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> added on 21 April. Passive trackers moves ongoing, as reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> </li>
<li>Our model flagged the ASX200 as '<strong>overbought</strong>': up 3 weeks, and overextended, well into the "outliers" price targets zone. <strong>We think the index has topped.</strong>
</li>
<li>Downside targets are discussed in the insight, our model sees a bullish buy-the-dip pattern, a brief 1-2 weeks correction followed by higher prices.</li>
</ul>



S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) will see National Storage REIT (NSR AU) deleted and Alkane Resources (ALK AU) added on 21 April. Passive trackers moves ongoing, as reported by Brian Freitas 
Our model flagged the ASX200 as 'overbought': up 3 weeks, and overextended, well into the "outliers" price targets zone. We think the index has topped.

Downside targets are discussed in the insight, our model sees a bullish buy-the-dip pattern, a brief 1-2 weeks correction followed by higher prices.


ASX200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of April 21 Adhoc Index Rebalance

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


Australia

Alkane Resources Ltd. explores for and produces metals and minerals.  The Company produces gold in the Wyoming I, II and III projects, and the Caloma, Peak Hill and Wellington properties in New South Wales; and zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, yttrium and rare earths at the Dubbo project in New South Wales.

Price Gauge
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Alkane Resources (ALK AU)

Australian Gold Conference 2024 Highlights: Who and What Did We Find Interesting at the Event?

We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new...

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Scheme Vote on 3 June

This is a done deal. At the last close, the shares are trading in line with the implied value of the default consideration.

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun26: FireFly Metals A Question Mark; Qube Replacements; Rank Changes

All expected index changes have multiple days of volume to trade. There is still roughly one month left in the reference period and some ASX 200...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of April 21 Adhoc Index Rebalance

The ASX 200 index is OVERBOUGHT according to our model (and likely topped). Upcoming April 21 rebalance passive trackers moves are ongoing....

Nico Rosti

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Australian Gold Conference 2024 Highlights: Who and What Did We Find Interesting at the Event?

We attended the 2024 Australian Gold Conference last week at a time when gold is coming back in vogue with the gold price continuing to push to new...

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Scheme Vote on 3 June

This is a done deal. At the last close, the shares are trading in line with the implied value of the default consideration.

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun26: FireFly Metals A Question Mark; Qube Replacements; Rank Changes

All expected index changes have multiple days of volume to trade. There is still roughly one month left in the reference period and some ASX 200...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of April 21 Adhoc Index Rebalance

​The ASX 200 index is OVERBOUGHT according to our model (and likely topped). Upcoming April 21 rebalance passive trackers moves are ongoing....

Nico Rosti

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

The ASX 200 index is OVERBOUGHT according to our model (and likely topped). Upcoming April 21 rebalance passive trackers moves are ongoing....