Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The India Pharma &amp; Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E.</li><li>We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY sales/EBITDA growth.</li><li>Our assumptions – (1) Pharma coverage to see 10% YoY sales growth, largely led by 12% YoY growth in India business and ~6% QoQ growth in the US business, which will be driven by moderate price erosion, steady traction in gRevlimid/gSpiriva, new launches (gMyrbetriq), and steady traction in specialty business</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The India Pharma &amp; Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E.We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY sales/EBITDA growth.Our assumptions – (1) Pharma coverage to see 10% YoY sales growth, largely led by 12% YoY growth in India business and ~6% QoQ growth in the US business, which will be driven by moderate price erosion, steady traction in gRevlimid/gSpiriva, new launches (gMyrbetriq), and steady traction in specialty businessContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pharma and Healthcare (Q1FY25E Results Preview): Start the Year on a Strong Nod

<ul><li>Samvardhana Motherson International: SAMIL’s Q4 revenue was marginally above our estimate, led by the modules and polymer products division</li><li>PAT at INR 13.7bn was higher than our estimates (INR 7.2bn) due to lower finance costs and ETR</li><li>Our faith in the company is undeterred given its well-diversified presence across components, geographies and customers</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samvardhana Motherson International: SAMIL’s Q4 revenue was marginally above our estimate, led by the modules and polymer products divisionPAT at INR 13.7bn was higher than our estimates (INR 7.2bn) due to lower finance costs and ETROur faith in the company is undeterred given its well-diversified presence across components, geographies and customersContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Samvardhana Motherson International

<ul><li>The India Pharma Market (IPM) has maintained a steady ~10% CAGR from FY12 to FY23, despite various disruptions, driven mainly by volume expansion ranging between 5-10% during FY12-18, which subsequently tapered to 2-3% from FY19-23, primarily due to generic competition (FY22 growth was on a low base due to the COVID-19 pandemic)</li><li>However, this deceleration in volume growth has been somewhat offset by 5-6% price growth annually, since FY19</li><li>We expect IPM growth to remain steady at 8-10% over the next few years, with companies boasting strong franchises and brands likely to see faster growth</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The India Pharma Market (IPM) has maintained a steady ~10% CAGR from FY12 to FY23, despite various disruptions, driven mainly by volume expansion ranging between 5-10% during FY12-18, which subsequently tapered to 2-3% from FY19-23, primarily due to generic competition (FY22 growth was on a low base due to the COVID-19 pandemic)However, this deceleration in volume growth has been somewhat offset by 5-6% price growth annually, since FY19We expect IPM growth to remain steady at 8-10% over the next few years, with companies boasting strong franchises and brands likely to see faster growthContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pharmaceuticals: Domestic formulations sector: secular growth stories

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.</li>
<li>Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.</li>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

India

Alkem Laboratories Ltd. is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company specializing in generics and specialty pharmaceuticals. It manufactures and markets pharmaceutical generics, formulations, and nutraceuticals across India and global markets. The company's product portfolio also includes active pharmaceutical ingredients, branded products, vitamins, minerals, and nutritional products. Alkem Laboratories is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1973.

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Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM IN)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Pharma and Healthcare (Q1FY25E Results Preview): Start the Year on a Strong Nod

The India Pharma & Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E. We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Samvardhana Motherson International

Samvardhana Motherson International: SAMIL’s Q4 revenue was marginally above our estimate, led by the modules and polymer products division

HDFC Securities

Pharmaceuticals: Domestic formulations sector: secular growth stories

We expect IPM growth to remain steady at 8-10% over the next few years, with companies boasting strong franchises and brands likely to see faster...

HDFC Securities

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Pharma and Healthcare (Q1FY25E Results Preview): Start the Year on a Strong Nod

The India Pharma & Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E. We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Samvardhana Motherson International

Samvardhana Motherson International: SAMIL’s Q4 revenue was marginally above our estimate, led by the modules and polymer products division

HDFC Securities

Pharmaceuticals: Domestic formulations sector: secular growth stories

We expect IPM growth to remain steady at 8-10% over the next few years, with companies boasting strong franchises and brands likely to see faster...

HDFC Securities

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

​Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...