Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/all-winner-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25392:1" rel="noopener">All Winner Technology (300458 CH)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starpower-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30089:1" rel="noopener">StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH)</a> in the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 12 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH)</a>'s index weight is currently higher than 10% and the stock will be capped to limit its index weight.   </li>
<li>The forecast add has outperformed the forecast delete over the last year and recent market volatility (and valuations) has narrowed the gap.</li>
</ul>



All Winner Technology (300458 CH) could replace StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH) in the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 12 December.

Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH)'s index weight is currently higher than 10% and the stock will be capped to limit its index weight.   
The forecast add has outperformed the forecast delete over the last year and recent market volatility (and valuations) has narrowed the gap.


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely in Dec

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in stocks that are adds/deletes for both indices - and there are a few of those. Plus there are some overlaps with other indices.</li>
<li>While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes for both indices since January, near-term performance has not been great. That could change as we near the announcement date.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
The largest flows will be in stocks that are adds/deletes for both indices - and there are a few of those. Plus there are some overlaps with other indices.
While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes for both indices since January, near-term performance has not been great. That could change as we near the announcement date.


ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Whole Lotta Change

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 500 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Henan Shenhuo Coal &amp; Power, Guangxi Liugong Machinery, Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy, Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Shenergy, Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel, Yonghui Superstores.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 500 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Henan Shenhuo Coal &amp; Power, Guangxi Liugong Machinery, Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy, Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Shenergy, Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel, Yonghui Superstores.


CSI 500 Index Earning Revision (Jun): Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power, Guangxi Liugong Machinery

Bluefocus Communication Group Co, Ltd. / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 8 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.</li>
<li>Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).</li>
</ul>


There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).


ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for the upcoming index rebal event. We expect 9 ADDs/DELs for the ChiNext index and 5 ADDs/DELs for the ChiNext 50.</li>
</ul>


The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for the upcoming index rebal event. We expect 9 ADDs/DELs for the ChiNext index and 5 ADDs/DELs for the ChiNext 50.


Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Final Expectations

China

Allwinner Technology Co Ltd is a fabless design company dedicated to smart application processor SoCs and smart analog ICs. The companies products are used on a global basis.

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All Winner Technology (300458 CH)

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely in Dec

All Winner Tech could replace StarPower Semi in the index in Dec. Cambricon Tech's index weight will be capped. All Winner has outperformed...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Whole Lotta Change

There could be 10/5 changes for the Chinext/50 in June with 10 stocks having over 1x ADV to trade from passives. Adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

CSI 500 Index Earning Revision (Jun): Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power, Guangxi Liugong Machinery

We analyzed CSI 500's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power (000933 CH), Guangxi Liugong Machinery...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance. The round-trip trade across both indices is...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Final Expectations

There have been some last-minute changes to the index methodology which are expected to become effective during the June 2025 index rebal event. We...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely in Dec

All Winner Tech could replace StarPower Semi in the index in Dec. Cambricon Tech's index weight will be capped. All Winner has outperformed...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Whole Lotta Change

There could be 10/5 changes for the Chinext/50 in June with 10 stocks having over 1x ADV to trade from passives. Adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

CSI 500 Index Earning Revision (Jun): Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power, Guangxi Liugong Machinery

We analyzed CSI 500's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power (000933 CH), Guangxi Liugong Machinery...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance. The round-trip trade across both indices is...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Final Expectations

There have been some last-minute changes to the index methodology which are expected to become effective during the June 2025 index rebal event. We...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Whole Lotta Change

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade