Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New weekly data from US banks are now out, the first time since 13 June events, so important</li>
<li>There remains loan acceleration in total loans and also the important bucket, C&amp;I loans</li>
<li>LDR expansion good, new CP outstanding data shows a surge in growth rate, new highs</li>
</ul>


New weekly data from US banks are now out, the first time since 13 June events, so important
There remains loan acceleration in total loans and also the important bucket, C&amp;I loans
LDR expansion good, new CP outstanding data shows a surge in growth rate, new highs


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Post 13 June Are Out, Strong C&I, Low LLR, LDR Up, CP Growth High

<ul>
<li>Quarterly granular data from US banks is collated by the Fed showing consumer loans broken down by PD bucket</li>
<li>The data through 1Q25 may be counterintuitive with what shows some of the best credit metrics in the time series </li>
<li>The best two PD buckets for both residential mortgage loans and credit card loans, are both rising as a proportion of total, and at peaks in the series</li>
</ul>


Quarterly granular data from US banks is collated by the Fed showing consumer loans broken down by PD bucket
The data through 1Q25 may be counterintuitive with what shows some of the best credit metrics in the time series 
The best two PD buckets for both residential mortgage loans and credit card loans, are both rising as a proportion of total, and at peaks in the series


US Banks - Granular Data on Probability of Default (PD) Points to Strong Consumer Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>US banks HFD in Fed H8 weekly release suggests strong income for US banks</li>
<li>LLR stagnating weekly basis for a long time, suggesting little incremental credit costs</li>
<li>LDR also expanding, with low growth of high costs deposits, 2Q25 profit can be strong</li>
</ul>


US banks HFD in Fed H8 weekly release suggests strong income for US banks
LLR stagnating weekly basis for a long time, suggesting little incremental credit costs
LDR also expanding, with low growth of high costs deposits, 2Q25 profit can be strong


US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Stagnating On Weekly Basis, Indicator of Benign Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks</li>
<li>C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's</li>
<li>Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24</li>
</ul>


Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's
Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24


US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> at JPY4,900 per share, a 23.0% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Irrevocables from the two largest shareholders, representing a 68.38% ownership ratio, ensure a done deal as it exceeds the required 66.67% ownership ratio to pass the EGM share consolidation vote.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The tender offer runs from 30 May to 10 July (30 business days).</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY4,900 per share, a 23.0% premium to the last close.
Irrevocables from the two largest shareholders, representing a 68.38% ownership ratio, ensure a done deal as it exceeds the required 66.67% ownership ratio to pass the EGM share consolidation vote.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The tender offer runs from 30 May to 10 July (30 business days).


SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP): NTT’s (9432 JP) JPY4,900 Tender Offer a Done Deal

United States

Ally Financial Inc. is a automotive financial services company powered by a direct banking franchise. The Company operates as a financial holding company.

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Ally Financial (ALLY US)

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Post 13 June Are Out, Strong C&I, Low LLR, LDR Up, CP Growth High

US bank balances sheets weekly data is just out and this is first H8 data since 13 June events. C&I is strong, LLR is low, LDR rising, and CP...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Data on Probability of Default (PD) Points to Strong Consumer Credit Metrics

Granular data on probability of default for US banks in their mortgage lending and credit card lending, is highly positive, suggesting good credit...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Stagnating On Weekly Basis, Indicator of Benign Credit Metrics

Weekly data from Fed shows bank's loan loss reserves continue their stagnation, suggesting limited incremental credit costs, suggesting benign...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

There is good new high-frequency data from US banks and the Commercial Paper market suggesting a strong underlying economy for core C&I credit.

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP): NTT’s (9432 JP) JPY4,900 Tender Offer a Done Deal

Irrevocables from the two largest shareholders ensure a done deal. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.

Arun George

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