Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

<ul>
<li>Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024</li>
<li>The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024
The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. 
Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.


US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY</li>
<li>The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health</li>
<li>NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy</li>
</ul>


BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy


BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

United States

Ally Financial Inc. is a automotive financial services company powered by a direct banking franchise. The Company operates as a financial holding company.

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Ally Financial (ALLY US)

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

BAC is showing most all of its net profit delta in the past year coming from core income, which is positive. Its corporate lending appears strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

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