HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BeiGene performed well in 23Q3. Product sales maintained strong growth momentum. Together with effective cost control measures, net loss significantly narrowed (close to breakeven), which exceeds expectation.</li>
<li>BeiGene plans to rely primarily on BRUKINSA/tislelizumab to achieve breakeven, which means BRUKINSA needs to contribute about US$2 billion revenue. Given prescriptions volume, however, Astrazeneca’s Calquence is the biggest holdup.</li>
<li>Whether BeiGene's overall revenue can reach US$4 billion is the key point of marginal change in logic. How to further reduce SG&amp;A/R&amp;D expenses has become important topic at this stage.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene performed well in 23Q3. Product sales maintained strong growth momentum. Together with effective cost control measures, net loss significantly narrowed (close to breakeven), which exceeds expectation.
BeiGene plans to rely primarily on BRUKINSA/tislelizumab to achieve breakeven, which means BRUKINSA needs to contribute about US$2 billion revenue. Given prescriptions volume, however, Astrazeneca’s Calquence is the biggest holdup.
Whether BeiGene's overall revenue can reach US$4 billion is the key point of marginal change in logic. How to further reduce SG&amp;A/R&amp;D expenses has become important topic at this stage.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet the revenue earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>In Q2, the overall net product revenues increased 43% year over year across all products.</li><li>The TTR brand generated $224 million in global net product revenues for ONPATTRO and AMVUTTRA, a 46% increase from the second quarter of 2022 and a 9% rise from the first quarter.</li></ul>

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet the revenue earnings expectations of Wall Street.In Q2, the overall net product revenues increased 43% year over year across all products.The TTR brand generated $224 million in global net product revenues for ONPATTRO and AMVUTTRA, a 46% increase from the second quarter of 2022 and a 9% rise from the first quarter.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Can The Latest Collaboration With Roche Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>BeiGene maintained strong product sales in 23H1 and its net loss continued to narrow. This means that BeiGene has realized the cost control problem and entered a healthy growth phase.</li>
<li>Our revenue forecast indicates BeiGene is approaching the minimum threshold for turning losses into profits. A more likely scenario is revenue need to reach over US$4 billion to be breakeven</li>
<li>However, regardless of the calculation, BeiGene ‘s valuation is still unreasonably high. Its potential/certainty is nowhere near that of Alnylam. Maintaining sustained high growth is not easy because "accidents" remain.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene maintained strong product sales in 23H1 and its net loss continued to narrow. This means that BeiGene has realized the cost control problem and entered a healthy growth phase.
Our revenue forecast indicates BeiGene is approaching the minimum threshold for turning losses into profits. A more likely scenario is revenue need to reach over US$4 billion to be breakeven
However, regardless of the calculation, BeiGene ‘s valuation is still unreasonably high. Its potential/certainty is nowhere near that of Alnylam. Maintaining sustained high growth is not easy because "accidents" remain.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

Equity Capital Markets

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA, which delivered a 48% increase compared to the same quarter last year.</li><li>Their TTR franchise showed strong performance with solid net product revenues and patient growth, driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA.</li><li>We give Alnylam Pharmaceuticals a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA, which delivered a 48% increase compared to the same quarter last year.Their TTR franchise showed strong performance with solid net product revenues and patient growth, driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA.We give Alnylam Pharmaceuticals a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: Commercialization of RNAi Therapeutics & Other Developments

<ul>
<li>The current two mainstream delivery platforms such as LNP delivery platform and GalNAc RNAi platform have been verified and recognized, with products using these platforms successfully launched on the market.</li>
<li>Sirnaomics has developed its own differentiated delivery platforms, but the druggability has never been verified in trials, like a blind box. They will not be valuable until they are proven.</li>
<li>Sirnaomics has cashflow pressure and is uncertain if it can survive “this winter”. It’s also difficult for Sirnaomics to find suitable valuation anchor in HKEX. Share price may fluctuate largely.</li>
</ul>


The current two mainstream delivery platforms such as LNP delivery platform and GalNAc RNAi platform have been verified and recognized, with products using these platforms successfully launched on the market.
Sirnaomics has developed its own differentiated delivery platforms, but the druggability has never been verified in trials, like a blind box. They will not be valuable until they are proven.
Sirnaomics has cashflow pressure and is uncertain if it can survive “this winter”. It’s also difficult for Sirnaomics to find suitable valuation anchor in HKEX. Share price may fluctuate largely.


Sirnaomics (2257.HK)-Unverified Technology and Uncertainties Can Lead to Big Swings in Share Price

United States

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. is an early-stage therapeutics company. The Company is developing technology that can specifically and potently silence disease-causing genes.

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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

BeiGene’s 23Q3 results exceed expectation as the Company is close to breakeven. Total revenue of US$4 billion is the next 'fortress' for BeiGene to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Can The Latest Collaboration With Roche Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet the revenue earnings expectations of Wall...

Baptista Research

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

BeiGene's financial performance starts to become healthier in 23H1. As BeiGene approaches breakeven, it's particularly crucial to avoid "accidents"...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: Commercialization of RNAi Therapeutics & Other Developments

The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of...

Baptista Research

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BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

BeiGene’s 23Q3 results exceed expectation as the Company is close to breakeven. Total revenue of US$4 billion is the next 'fortress' for BeiGene to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Can The Latest Collaboration With Roche Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet the revenue earnings expectations of Wall...

Baptista Research

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

BeiGene's financial performance starts to become healthier in 23H1. As BeiGene approaches breakeven, it's particularly crucial to avoid "accidents"...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: Commercialization of RNAi Therapeutics & Other Developments

The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of...

Baptista Research

Sirnaomics (2257.HK)-Unverified Technology and Uncertainties Can Lead to Big Swings in Share Price

Sirnaomics's delivery platforms are different from the mainstream, with risk of failure.They won't be valuable until they're verified. Due to lack...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth