Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This report looks at SaaS-Software versus Hyperscalers. Which group is getting cheapest and is attractive? Is the steep Software correction justified by SaaSpocalypse? I add FinTech and eComm. </li>
<li>The overall market’s direction says that it’s not time to buy anything. However, we still can think about the merits, risk/reward, valuations/growth of different sectors. </li>
<li>Conclusions 1) SaaS-Software has derated to a level consistent with earnings growth 2) Hyperscalers tend to outperform with lower volatility 3) a couple of FinTechs are interesting.</li>
</ul>


This report looks at SaaS-Software versus Hyperscalers. Which group is getting cheapest and is attractive? Is the steep Software correction justified by SaaSpocalypse? I add FinTech and eComm. 
The overall market’s direction says that it’s not time to buy anything. However, we still can think about the merits, risk/reward, valuations/growth of different sectors. 
Conclusions 1) SaaS-Software has derated to a level consistent with earnings growth 2) Hyperscalers tend to outperform with lower volatility 3) a couple of FinTechs are interesting.


Is Software Getting Cheap? De-Rating, but Not Cheap. Hyperscalers and Some Fintech More Interesting.

<ul>
<li>Reviewing Consensus forecasts 2026-28, ie the impact of AI capex. Large operating margins expansion, even higher increase in cash flow from operations. Increasing depreciations but ~17% net income Cagr.</li>
<li>The debate is capex. Is capex growth slowing down after 2026, is 2026 the peak capex/revenue? My view is that capex growth will slowdown a lot less than Consensus expects.</li>
<li>The conundrum is: how to value stocks with high earnings growth (17%) but increasing fixed costs and slim free cash flow?</li>
</ul>


Reviewing Consensus forecasts 2026-28, ie the impact of AI capex. Large operating margins expansion, even higher increase in cash flow from operations. Increasing depreciations but ~17% net income Cagr.
The debate is capex. Is capex growth slowing down after 2026, is 2026 the peak capex/revenue? My view is that capex growth will slowdown a lot less than Consensus expects.
The conundrum is: how to value stocks with high earnings growth (17%) but increasing fixed costs and slim free cash flow?


Hyperscalers: What Is Consensus Forecasting? Good or Bad? How Much Capex Can They Spend?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Compute Is Perishable Inventory: racks earn nothing merely plugged in, and unallocated GPU hours expire immediately. Hyperscaler returns hinge on billable utilisation before chip obsolescence erodes installed fleets' residual values.</li>
<li>
Accounting Masks Capital Exposure: disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments exceed $3.1 trillion. Useful-life extensions and lease reclassifications reduce reported headline capex without lowering actual cash outlays, obscuring true infrastructure intensity.</li>
<li>
Quality of Demand Is Shifting: Multi-year RPO backlogs offer duration visibility, not locked-in returns. With compute futures launching, spot-to-contract spreads and post-trial enterprise conversion will reveal true marginal capacity yield.</li>
</ul>



Compute Is Perishable Inventory: racks earn nothing merely plugged in, and unallocated GPU hours expire immediately. Hyperscaler returns hinge on billable utilisation before chip obsolescence erodes installed fleets' residual values.

Accounting Masks Capital Exposure: disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments exceed $3.1 trillion. Useful-life extensions and lease reclassifications reduce reported headline capex without lowering actual cash outlays, obscuring true infrastructure intensity.

Quality of Demand Is Shifting: Multi-year RPO backlogs offer duration visibility, not locked-in returns. With compute futures launching, spot-to-contract spreads and post-trial enterprise conversion will reveal true marginal capacity yield.


The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Marc Benioff on Gemini 3: I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane</li>
<li>Anthropic on expansion of Google Cloud TPU:  The expansion is worth tens of billions of dollars and is expected to bring well over a gigawatt of capacity online in 2026.</li>
<li>DeepMind is Alphabet's dark horse. AlphaFold is one of the most significant AI-related accomplishments ever. What will they turn their attention to next? Let's see...</li>
</ul>


Marc Benioff on Gemini 3: I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane
Anthropic on expansion of Google Cloud TPU:  The expansion is worth tens of billions of dollars and is expected to bring well over a gigawatt of capacity online in 2026.
DeepMind is Alphabet's dark horse. AlphaFold is one of the most significant AI-related accomplishments ever. What will they turn their attention to next? Let's see...


Alphabet. More Of The AI, Less Of The Drama

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the April-June quarter earnings season winds down, positive surprises outnumber disappointments. Consensus earnings estimates keep getting upgraded in Asia and the US. Asian EPS upgrade has lately outpaced US's.</li>
<li>Over the last month, consensus 2026 EPS estimate of Asia-ex-Japan has been upgraded 4.4%, driven by Korea (12.8%), Taiwan (5.8%), Thailand (5.5%). 105 of 162 market-sectors have seen EPS upgrades.</li>
<li>The encouraging signs are: breadth across a wide range of sectors and not driven by AI capex only. Sectors not directly linked to AI exuberance are among top earnings gainers.</li>
</ul>


As the April-June quarter earnings season winds down, positive surprises outnumber disappointments. Consensus earnings estimates keep getting upgraded in Asia and the US. Asian EPS upgrade has lately outpaced US's.
Over the last month, consensus 2026 EPS estimate of Asia-ex-Japan has been upgraded 4.4%, driven by Korea (12.8%), Taiwan (5.8%), Thailand (5.5%). 105 of 162 market-sectors have seen EPS upgrades.
The encouraging signs are: breadth across a wide range of sectors and not driven by AI capex only. Sectors not directly linked to AI exuberance are among top earnings gainers.


Asian Equities: A Stupendous Earnings Quarter; Asia Matching US in Upgrades

United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

Is Software Getting Cheap? De-Rating, but Not Cheap. Hyperscalers and Some Fintech More Interesting.

Analysis of SaaS-Software vs. Hyperscalers: SaaS-Software has corrected to earnings growth levels, Hyperscalers outperform with lower volatility,...

Nicolas Baratte

Hyperscalers: What Is Consensus Forecasting? Good or Bad? How Much Capex Can They Spend?

Analysis of Consensus forecasts for 2026-28 (AI capex impact): large operating margin expansion, higher cash flow, debate on slowing capex growth...

Nicolas Baratte

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

We dissect how the hyperscaler build-out is an inventory cycle and not real estate. Why $725B in capex, $3.1T in off-balance commitments, and RPO...

Mint Finance

Alphabet. More Of The AI, Less Of The Drama

DeepMind is Alphabet's dark horse. AlphaFold is one of the most significant AI-related accomplishments ever. What will they turn their attention to...

William Keating

Asian Equities: A Stupendous Earnings Quarter; Asia Matching US in Upgrades

Positive earnings surprises continue as consensus EPS est are upgraded in Asia & the US, with Asian EPS upgrades surpassing those in US. Various...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Is Software Getting Cheap? De-Rating, but Not Cheap. Hyperscalers and Some Fintech More Interesting.

​Analysis of SaaS-Software vs. Hyperscalers: SaaS-Software has corrected to earnings growth levels, Hyperscalers outperform with lower volatility,...

Nicolas Baratte

Hyperscalers: What Is Consensus Forecasting? Good or Bad? How Much Capex Can They Spend?

​Analysis of Consensus forecasts for 2026-28 (AI capex impact): large operating margin expansion, higher cash flow, debate on slowing capex growth...

Nicolas Baratte

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

We dissect how the hyperscaler build-out is an inventory cycle and not real estate. Why $725B in capex, $3.1T in off-balance commitments, and RPO...

Mint Finance

Alphabet. More Of The AI, Less Of The Drama

DeepMind is Alphabet's dark horse. AlphaFold is one of the most significant AI-related accomplishments ever. What will they turn their attention to...

William Keating

Asian Equities: A Stupendous Earnings Quarter; Asia Matching US in Upgrades

​Positive earnings surprises continue as consensus EPS est are upgraded in Asia & the US, with Asian EPS upgrades surpassing those in US. Various...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Analysis of SaaS-Software vs. Hyperscalers: SaaS-Software has corrected to earnings growth levels, Hyperscalers outperform with lower volatility,...

Analysis of Consensus forecasts for 2026-28 (AI capex impact): large operating margin expansion, higher cash flow, debate on slowing capex growth...

Positive earnings surprises continue as consensus EPS est are upgraded in Asia & the US, with Asian EPS upgrades surpassing those in US. Various...