AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung and SK hynix are projecting $263 billion in combined net cash by year-end, intensifying pressure to move beyond 50% free-cash-flow payout targets.</li>
<li>Customer deposits and price floors underwrite new capacity, significantly improving demand visibility and weakening the traditional cycle-risk argument for holding massive excess cash.</li>
<li>While LTAs de-risk memory, capital demands remain high. Samsung’s foundry requires heavy investment, and both firms face potential supply-chain contingencies at their Chinese fabs.</li>
</ul>


Samsung and SK hynix are projecting $263 billion in combined net cash by year-end, intensifying pressure to move beyond 50% free-cash-flow payout targets.
Customer deposits and price floors underwrite new capacity, significantly improving demand visibility and weakening the traditional cycle-risk argument for holding massive excess cash.
While LTAs de-risk memory, capital demands remain high. Samsung’s foundry requires heavy investment, and both firms face potential supply-chain contingencies at their Chinese fabs.


[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.</li>
<li>MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.</li>
<li>Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.</li>
</ul>


First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.
MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.
Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.


Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

<ul>
<li>Google was the laggard, threatened by ChatGPT. A lot of ink was wasted predicting doomsday. Evidence of great management, Google stayed quiet and accelerated AI rollout.</li>
<li>Stellar 3Q25. Revenue up 16%, Operating Profit up 22%. 2025 Capex forecast was $75bn at the beginning of the year, now $92bn.</li>
<li>Consensus: not high. OP growth in 2026 15%, in 2027 13%. GOOG is trading at 25x 2026 EPS and 22x 2027. Not expensive.</li>
</ul>


Google was the laggard, threatened by ChatGPT. A lot of ink was wasted predicting doomsday. Evidence of great management, Google stayed quiet and accelerated AI rollout.
Stellar 3Q25. Revenue up 16%, Operating Profit up 22%. 2025 Capex forecast was $75bn at the beginning of the year, now $92bn.
Consensus: not high. OP growth in 2026 15%, in 2027 13%. GOOG is trading at 25x 2026 EPS and 22x 2027. Not expensive.


Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Oil price rise is pushing government bond yields higher globally, signaling the next inflationary wave has started</li>
<li>Precious Metals and miners rally despite higher yields and a strong Dollar- a positive divergence</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Oil price rise is pushing government bond yields higher globally, signaling the next inflationary wave has started
Precious Metals and miners rally despite higher yields and a strong Dollar- a positive divergence


Founder, CEO, GSBR Research

Garvit Bhandari

Founder, CEO

Leading Provider of Equity and Investment Research

GSBR Research

We are an independent equity research provider focused on covering global markets. The aim of the research is to provide an unbiased view of the fundamentals of the company.

<ul>
<li>Global data center capacity to nearly double from 103 GW (2025) to 200 GW by 2030 per JLL. Capital expenditure to reach upto US$1.7 trillion by 2030.</li>
<li>Hyperscalers Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet set to spend over US$700 billion on data centers in 2026.</li>
<li>Power is the binding constraint. Electricity demand nearly doubles to 1,587 TWh by 2030 (as per S&amp;P 451), with grid delays and rising local rates emerging as key risks.</li>
</ul>


Global data center capacity to nearly double from 103 GW (2025) to 200 GW by 2030 per JLL. Capital expenditure to reach upto US$1.7 trillion by 2030.
Hyperscalers Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet set to spend over US$700 billion on data centers in 2026.
Power is the binding constraint. Electricity demand nearly doubles to 1,587 TWh by 2030 (as per S&amp;P 451), with grid delays and rising local rates emerging as key risks.


Data Centers: The Trillion-Dollar Build-Out Investors Can't Ignore

United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

As AI changes memory contracting via LTAs, the traditional cyclical excuse for hoarding cash is weakening among investors, especially as Samsung...

Mint Finance

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

Google stellar 3Q25 results with revenue up 16% YoY and Operating profit up 22%. Consensus predicts steady growth, with GOOG trading at reasonable...

Nicolas Baratte

Overview #70 - Choke Points

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent evidence & mkt reaction to a second inflationary...

Rikki Malik

Data Centers: The Trillion-Dollar Build-Out Investors Can't Ignore

Global data center capacity set to nearly double by 2030, with power constraints posing key risks as electricity demand also doubles. Hyperscalers...

GSBR Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

As AI changes memory contracting via LTAs, the traditional cyclical excuse for hoarding cash is weakening among investors, especially as Samsung...

Mint Finance

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

​GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

​Google stellar 3Q25 results with revenue up 16% YoY and Operating profit up 22%. Consensus predicts steady growth, with GOOG trading at reasonable...

Nicolas Baratte

Overview #70 - Choke Points

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent evidence & mkt reaction to a second inflationary...

Rikki Malik

Data Centers: The Trillion-Dollar Build-Out Investors Can't Ignore

​Global data center capacity set to nearly double by 2030, with power constraints posing key risks as electricity demand also doubles. Hyperscalers...

GSBR Research

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Google stellar 3Q25 results with revenue up 16% YoY and Operating profit up 22%. Consensus predicts steady growth, with GOOG trading at reasonable...

Global data center capacity set to nearly double by 2030, with power constraints posing key risks as electricity demand also doubles. Hyperscalers...