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Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data

We focus on hedge funds with a bias towards emerging managers, specifically fundamental long-short managers. We are known for a lot of insights and exclusives on hedge fund letters, coverage of industry conferences, and interviews with investors and interesting service providers.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>LYNX Bermuda 1.5 gained 13.90 percent in September and now leads HSBC’s hedge fund performance table with a 53.06 percent return for 2026.</li><li>The worst performer, Orgueil Capital Global L/S Equity, lost 14.84 percent in the same month and is down 22.12 percent for the year.</li><li>The gap is 75.18 percentage points, up from 57.24 points four weeks ago , when Quantedge led at plus 42.45 percent and Saba Capital’s carry-neutral tail hedge was last at -14.79 percent.</li></ul>

LYNX Bermuda 1.5 gained 13.90 percent in September and now leads HSBC’s hedge fund performance table with a 53.06 percent return for 2026.The worst performer, Orgueil Capital Global L/S Equity, lost 14.84 percent in the same month and is down 22.12 percent for the year.The gap is 75.18 percentage points, up from 57.24 points four weeks ago , when Quantedge led at plus 42.45 percent and Saba Capital’s carry-neutral tail hedge was last at -14.79 percent.

LYNX Up 53% as the 2026 Hedge Fund Performance Spread Widens to 75 Points

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although the numbers are a "black box".</li>
<li>The most significant distortion in both companies' ARR figures is the circular financing loop: the hyperscalers who invest equity capital into Anthropic and OpenAI then route traffic back to them.</li>
<li>Investors should treat ARR with skepticism and not as a reliable basis for valuation. It's a directional indicator of growth momentum from a low revenue base that obfuscates actual performance.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although the numbers are a "black box".
The most significant distortion in both companies' ARR figures is the circular financing loop: the hyperscalers who invest equity capital into Anthropic and OpenAI then route traffic back to them.
Investors should treat ARR with skepticism and not as a reliable basis for valuation. It's a directional indicator of growth momentum from a low revenue base that obfuscates actual performance.


ANTHROPIC & OPENAI - ARR: Every Bubble Has a Gimmick

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.</li>
<li>OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.</li>
<li>DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.
OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.
DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.


This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

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LYNX Up 53% as the 2026 Hedge Fund Performance Spread Widens to 75 Points

LYNX Bermuda 1.5 gained 13.90 percent in September and now leads HSBC’s hedge fund performance table with a 53.06 percent return for 2026.

Hedge Fund Alpha

ANTHROPIC & OPENAI - ARR: Every Bubble Has a Gimmick

Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although...

David Mudd

This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

This week in AI: Anthropic cut prices by up to 90% with Claude Haiku 5.5, OpenAI's annualized revenue reached about USD 50bn, and Moonshot closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom....

David Mudd

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

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