Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>The Background</h2>The establishment of the <a href="http://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/listing/cg/tvdivq0000008jdy-att/20150513.pdf" target="_blank">Japan Corporate Governance Code</a> in 2015 was a beginning step to better governance at stodgy Japanese corporations where boards have often been composed largely of insiders and their friends, financial acuity or expertise of board members was sorely lacking, and treatment of minority shareholders has often been dodgy at best. The Japan Corporate Governance Code ("JCGC") which sets rules regarding whistle-blowing, disclosure, stakeholders’ rights and more, is…

The BackgroundThe establishment of the Japan Corporate Governance Code in 2015 was a beginning step to better governance at stodgy Japanese corporations where boards have often been composed largely of insiders and their friends, financial acuity or expertise of board members was sorely lacking, and treatment of minority shareholders has often been dodgy at best. The Japan Corporate Governance Code ("JCGC") which sets rules regarding whistle-blowing, disclosure, stakeholders’ rights and more, is…

Japan Crossholdings: Japan Exchange's Sale of SGX Shares Sets A Precedent - Watch Closely

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

With 3Q Earning Season basically done, we looked back to see which names have done well in the first 3Q and are well positioned to beat full-year guidance / consensus and which ones are not. We first screened for names that have already achieved more than 100% of current Net Income consensus estimates.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP)</a> tops this list having already achieved 266% of full-year consensus net income. As of 3 quarters, Softbank has achieved ¥1tn of Net Income. This is compared to…

With 3Q Earning Season basically done, we looked back to see which names have done well in the first 3Q and are well positioned to beat full-year guidance / consensus and which ones are not. We first screened for names that have already achieved more than 100% of current Net Income consensus estimates.Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) tops this list having already achieved 266% of full-year consensus net income. As of 3 quarters, Softbank has achieved ¥1tn of Net Income. This is compared to…

With 3Q Earnings Pretty Much Done Which Names Are Best / Worst Position for Full-Year End....

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were announced. We also looked at which names have performed the best relative to TOPIX since they announced numbers.On the positive side, we screened for names where FY1 EPS estimate increased more than 5% since the company announced 1H earnings. Some of the larger names that made the screen were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with a 10% increase, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a>…

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were announced. We also looked at which names have performed the best relative to TOPIX since they announced numbers.On the positive side, we screened for names where FY1 EPS estimate increased more than 5% since the company announced 1H earnings. Some of the larger names that made the screen were Sony Corp (6758 JP) with a 10% increase, Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)…

Biggest Moves in Consensus and Best Performers After 1H Announcements in Japan....

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> was for many years the small sad portion of the Alps/Alpine/AlpsLogistics corporate capital structure. There were times when one could play the parent vs the sub, or vs the subs, but it was never very worthwhile. When Alps took over Alpine, it looked perhaps like it would be a situation where the rest of the capital ownership would be rationalized. Unfortunately not. The fact that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps (6770 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alpine-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2704:1" rel="noopener">Alpine Electronics (6816 JP)</a> together engaged in awful governance for shareholders - with Alpine effectively gaslighting its own shareholders about the necessity of holding cash as a non-financial asset, and Alps going along with it despite its obligations to minority shareholders of its subsidiary but then later deciding that post-merger it was going to spend Alpine's cash for them - showing everyone Alpine did not need it - hopes for a good governance solution to the undervaluation of Alps Logistics were certainly diminished.<h2>The NEW News</h2>Today, the TSE announced that Alps Logistics would move to the TSE's First Section. It meets all the new TSE1 Listing Criteria which went into effect November 1st, but probably applied under the old rules. In any case, this is big news. Under the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, Alps Logistics is SUPER GREEN.<section><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/465/original/image?1610624126" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182465"></figure></section>That's good. However, someone appears to have figured this news out three days ago. Since Tuesday AM, the stock is up 32%. And as always after that kind of introduction, there is more below the fold.

Alps Logistics (9055 JP) was for many years the small sad portion of the Alps/Alpine/AlpsLogistics corporate capital structure. There were times when one could play the parent vs the sub, or vs the subs, but it was never very worthwhile. When Alps took over Alpine, it looked perhaps like it would be a situation where the rest of the capital ownership would be rationalized. Unfortunately not. The fact that Alps (6770 JP) and Alpine Electronics (6816 JP) together engaged in awful governance for shareholders - with Alpine effectively gaslighting its own shareholders about the necessity of holding cash as a non-financial asset, and Alps going along with it despite its obligations to minority shareholders of its subsidiary but then later deciding that post-merger it was going to spend Alpine's cash for them - showing everyone Alpine did not need it - hopes for a good governance solution to the undervaluation of Alps Logistics were certainly diminished.The NEW NewsToday, the TSE announced that Alps Logistics would move to the TSE's First Section. It meets all the new TSE1 Listing Criteria which went into effect November 1st, but probably applied under the old rules. In any case, this is big news. Under the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, Alps Logistics is SUPER GREEN.That's good. However, someone appears to have figured this news out three days ago. Since Tuesday AM, the stock is up 32%. And as always after that kind of introduction, there is more below the fold.

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Equity Bottom-Up

While the discussion over whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Electric (6770 JP)</a> acquired <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2704:1">Alpine Electronics (6816 JP)</a>  too cheaply may continue, now that the merger is going ahead, it is worthwhile reviewing the situation at the newly created organization Alps Alpine [AA].

While the discussion over whether Alps Electric (6770 JP) acquired Alpine Electronics (6816 JP)  too cheaply may continue, now that the merger is going ahead, it is worthwhile reviewing the situation at the newly created organization Alps Alpine [AA].

Alps (6770 JT) - Positive Outlook Post Merger

Japan

ALPINE ELECTRONICS, INC. makes car audio equipment and car navigation systems. The Company also manufactures information & communication equipment and electronic units.

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Alpine Electronics (6816 JP)

Japan Crossholdings: Japan Exchange's Sale of SGX Shares Sets A Precedent - Watch Closely

The BackgroundThe establishment of the Japan Corporate Governance Code in 2015 was a beginning step to better governance at stodgy Japanese...

Travis Lundy

With 3Q Earnings Pretty Much Done Which Names Are Best / Worst Position for Full-Year End....

With 3Q Earning Season basically done, we looked back to see which names have done well in the first 3Q and are well positioned to beat full-year...

Custom Products Group

Biggest Moves in Consensus and Best Performers After 1H Announcements in Japan....

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were...

Custom Products Group

TOPIX Inclusion: Alps Logistics (9055)

Alps Logistics is up 32% in three days on no news, but today's news is that it moves to TSE1 in a week, triggering a TOPIX inclusion at end-Feb....

Travis Lundy

Alps (6770 JT) - Positive Outlook Post Merger

While the discussion over whether Alps Electric (6770 JP) acquired Alpine Electronics (6816 JP) too cheaply may continue, now that the merger is...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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