Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.</li>
<li>In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.</li>
<li>According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.</li>
</ul>


This week the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.


EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of July 2024, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of July 2024, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.</li>
<li>For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a>, Hollysys.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).

Lowest spreads: Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), Hollysys.



Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) - China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol

Australia

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) - China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (122.5%), China TCM (31.8%), Asia Cement (12.6%), Canvest (11.1%), GA Pack (10.9%), Malaysia...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

​The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) - China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (122.5%), China TCM (31.8%), Asia Cement (12.6%), Canvest (11.1%), GA Pack (10.9%), Malaysia...

Arun George

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....