Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items </li>
<li>Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% 
Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items 
Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    


Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Fund managers are positioned at their highest ever net overweight in the EMEA Technology sector.</li>
<li>EMEA Technology has been at the forefront of a broader diversification away from key sectors in the Americas region.</li>
<li>ASML and SAP SE are prominent holdings among Growth and GARP investors, whilst Value funds prefer Nokia OYJ and Nxp Semiconductors </li>
</ul>


Global Fund managers are positioned at their highest ever net overweight in the EMEA Technology sector.
EMEA Technology has been at the forefront of a broader diversification away from key sectors in the Americas region.
ASML and SAP SE are prominent holdings among Growth and GARP investors, whilst Value funds prefer Nokia OYJ and Nxp Semiconductors 


<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Credit

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing anytime soon.
Redemptions and lack of liquidity have brought down bond prices, and have, therefore, created attractive entry points for some issuers. Prices may not be as extreme as two weeks ago, but still there are opportunities aplenty.
The European Central Bank will purchase sovereign and corporate debt at a pace never seen before. It will provide a strong support for investment grade issuers. However, the credit market remains fragmented. The activity on primary market has not recovered for riskier issuers.
I have compiled a list of bonds by Spanish issuers (or whose parent is Spanish) in a variety of sectors. Most are multinational companies and should be able to emerge less harmed by the looming crisis.
Please read on.
(All data have been sourced from Capital IQ)

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing anytime soon.
Redemptions and lack of liquidity have brought down bond prices, and have, therefore, created attractive entry points for some issuers. Prices may not be as extreme as two weeks ago, but still there are opportunities aplenty.
The European Central Bank will purchase sovereign and corporate debt at a pace never seen before. It will provide a strong support for investment grade issuers. However, the credit market remains fragmented. The activity on primary market has not recovered for riskier issuers.
I have compiled a list of bonds by Spanish issuers (or whose parent is Spanish) in a variety of sectors. Most are multinational companies and should be able to emerge less harmed by the looming crisis.
Please read on.
(All data have been sourced from Capital IQ)

Spain

Amadeus IT Holding SA processes transactions for the global travel and tourism industry.  The Company processes transactions for airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise lines and ferry operators, car rental companies, and tour operators.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Amadeus It Holding Sa (AMS SM)

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Mohshin Aziz

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

EMEA Technology Rotation

Global Managers move to their highest ever overweight in the EMEA Technology sector, having been at the forefront of a broader diversification away...

Steven Holden

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Spanish Issuers' Credit Opportunities

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

​Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Mohshin Aziz

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

EMEA Technology Rotation

Global Managers move to their highest ever overweight in the EMEA Technology sector, having been at the forefront of a broader diversification away...

Steven Holden

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Spanish Issuers' Credit Opportunities

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...