Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian cement sector faces severe margin compression from a INR 400 per tonne geopolitical cost shock, despite reporting robust Q4 volume growth. </li>
<li>Coordinated price hikes of INR 10 to INR 12 per bag will only partially offset the massive margin squeeze, as pricing trails cost inflation. </li>
<li>Primary downside risks include further geopolitical escalation driving fuel prices higher, an inability to sustain recent price hikes, and weakening demand post elections.</li>
</ul>


The Indian cement sector faces severe margin compression from a INR 400 per tonne geopolitical cost shock, despite reporting robust Q4 volume growth. 
Coordinated price hikes of INR 10 to INR 12 per bag will only partially offset the massive margin squeeze, as pricing trails cost inflation. 
Primary downside risks include further geopolitical escalation driving fuel prices higher, an inability to sustain recent price hikes, and weakening demand post elections.


Indian Cement Industry: Can Price Hikes Offset the Geopolitical Shock?

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>Here we have presented our expectations for these indices for the upcoming index rebal event in March 2027.</li>
<li>We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
Here we have presented our expectations for these indices for the upcoming index rebal event in March 2027.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar27: Some High-Impact ADDs/DELs; ~US$1.3bn Combined One-Way Flow

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Cement demand fails to accelerate in Q3FY26: The industry was expecting cement demand to accelerate toward ~10% growth in H2FY26E following the GST rate cut</li><li>However, based on discussions with cement companies, dealers, and marketing executives, cement demand in Q3FY26 remained subdued at ~5% YoY, similar to H1FY26</li><li>Weak demand in the first half of the quarter impacted overall growth</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement demand fails to accelerate in Q3FY26: The industry was expecting cement demand to accelerate toward ~10% growth in H2FY26E following the GST rate cutHowever, based on discussions with cement companies, dealers, and marketing executives, cement demand in Q3FY26 remained subdued at ~5% YoY, similar to H1FY26Weak demand in the first half of the quarter impacted overall growthContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Muted demand, stable prices, healthy margins

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.</li><li>This compares to forecasted growth of 8% in volume, 13% in revenue, 47% in EBITDA, and 68% in PAT.</li><li>EBITDA/tonne during the quarter improved notably. EBITDA margins expanded by 400 bps YoY, supported by higher volumes and realisation, which grew by 16% and 4.5% respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.This compares to forecasted growth of 8% in volume, 13% in revenue, 47% in EBITDA, and 68% in PAT.EBITDA/tonne during the quarter improved notably. EBITDA margins expanded by 400 bps YoY, supported by higher volumes and realisation, which grew by 16% and 4.5% respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Consolidated Q2FY26”

<ul><li>Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.</li><li>This compares to forecasted growth of 8% in volume, 13% in revenue, 47% in EBITDA, and 68% in PAT. </li><li>EBITDA/tonne during the quarter improved notably. EBITDA margins expanded by 400 bps YoY, supported by higher volumes and realisation, which grew by 16% and 4.5% respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.This compares to forecasted growth of 8% in volume, 13% in revenue, 47% in EBITDA, and 68% in PAT. EBITDA/tonne during the quarter improved notably. EBITDA margins expanded by 400 bps YoY, supported by higher volumes and realisation, which grew by 16% and 4.5% respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Ambuja Cements Limited is an Indian cement producing company that manufactures and markets cement, clinker, and related products for domestic and export markets. Its product portfolio includes ordinary portland cement, portland pozzolana cement, and ready-mix concrete. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1983.

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Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)

Indian Cement Industry: Can Price Hikes Offset the Geopolitical Shock?

Indian cement sector experiences severe margin compression due to INR 400 per tonne cost shock, despite strong Q4 volume growth.

Nimish Maheshwari

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar27: Some High-Impact ADDs/DELs; ~US$1.3bn Combined One-Way Flow

We expect US$824mn and US$493mn one-way flows for NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 respectively. The NIFTY 50 expected ADDs/DELs have >8x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Cement (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Muted demand, stable prices, healthy margins

Cement demand fails to accelerate in Q3FY26: The industry was expecting cement demand to accelerate toward ~10% growth in H2FY26E following the GST...

HDFC Securities

Top Conviction Ideas - “Consolidated Q2FY26”

Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Cement”

Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Cement Industry: Can Price Hikes Offset the Geopolitical Shock?

​Indian cement sector experiences severe margin compression due to INR 400 per tonne cost shock, despite strong Q4 volume growth.

Nimish Maheshwari

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar27: Some High-Impact ADDs/DELs; ~US$1.3bn Combined One-Way Flow

We expect US$824mn and US$493mn one-way flows for NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 respectively. The NIFTY 50 expected ADDs/DELs have >8x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Cement (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Muted demand, stable prices, healthy margins

Cement demand fails to accelerate in Q3FY26: The industry was expecting cement demand to accelerate toward ~10% growth in H2FY26E following the GST...

HDFC Securities

Top Conviction Ideas - “Consolidated Q2FY26”

Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Cement”

Companies under our coverage delivered YoY growth of 16% in volume, 22% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 195% in PAT, beating our expectations.

Axis Direct

Indian cement sector experiences severe margin compression due to INR 400 per tonne cost shock, despite strong Q4 volume growth.