Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The RBA&rsquo;s recent communications continue to draw attention to the central bank&rsquo;s view that the Australian dollar remains relatively high given the decline in commodity prices and the state of the economy, and that a lower exchange rate is needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.&nbsp; I develop a model of the Australian dollar that produces better out of sample performance during the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy.&nbsp; This and a modified model based on purchasing power parity suggests that the A$ is modestly under-valued relative to the US$,&nbsp; which has important implications for currency traders and the performance of Australian stocks with material US$ exposure.

The RBA&rsquo;s recent communications continue to draw attention to the central bank&rsquo;s view that the Australian dollar remains relatively high given the decline in commodity prices and the state of the economy, and that a lower exchange rate is needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.&nbsp; I develop a model of the Australian dollar that produces better out of sample performance during the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy.&nbsp; This and a modified model based on purchasing power parity suggests that the A$ is modestly under-valued relative to the US$,&nbsp; which has important implications for currency traders and the performance of Australian stocks with material US$ exposure.

A new narrative for the Australian dollar in a zirped-up world

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$630mn out of "Metals &amp; Mining".</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seek-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:676:1" rel="noopener">Seek Ltd (SEK AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$630mn out of "Metals &amp; Mining".
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Evolution Mining (EVN AU), and Seek Ltd (SEK AU).


Aussie Shorts (9 Feb 2026): Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Sigma Healthcare, Evolution Mining, Seek

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.3bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$630mn out of "Gold".</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-wine-estates-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:710:1" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.3bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$630mn out of "Gold".
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Lynas (LYC AU), Bluescope Steel (BSL AU), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU), Evolution Mining (EVN AU), and Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU). 


Aussie Shorts (30th Jan 2026): Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Pinnacle Investment M'ment

Australia

Amcor Limited is an international integrated packaging company offering packaging and related services.  Amcor primarily produces a wide range of packaging products which include corrugated boxes, cartons, aluminum and steel cans, flexible plastic packaging, PET plastic bottles and jars, and multi-wall sacks.

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Amcor Limited (AMC AU)

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today’s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative...

Sam Ferraro

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

A new narrative for the Australian dollar in a zirped-up world

The RBA’s recent communications continue to draw attention to the central bank’s view that the Australian dollar remains relatively high given the...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (9 Feb 2026): Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Sigma Healthcare, Evolution Mining, Seek

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Evolution Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts (30th Jan 2026): Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Pinnacle Investment M'ment

Companies mentioned in this weekly short interest report include Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Treasury Wine Estates, Evolution Mining, and...

David Blennerhassett

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