Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%</li>
<li>The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data</li>
<li>Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward</li>
</ul>


Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%
The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data
Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward


US Banks - Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

<ul>
<li>HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans</li>
<li>US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions</li>
<li>Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week </li>
</ul>


HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans
US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions
Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week 


US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

<ul>
<li>Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding</li>
<li>Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it's worsening</li>
<li>Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug - growth is 'off the charts' </li>
</ul>


Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding
Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it's worsening
Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug - growth is 'off the charts' 


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

<ul>
<li>1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized</li>
<li>USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23</li>
<li>COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23</li>
</ul>


1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized
USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23
COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23


US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released</li>
<li>Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics </li>
<li>US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released
Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics 
US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

United States

American Express Company is a global payment and travel company. The Company's principal products and services are charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services offered to consumers and businesses around the world.

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American Express Co (AXP US)

US Banks - Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

New weekly data for US mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan rates, suggest major deterioration in home lending for US banks during 3Q23....

Daniel Tabbush

US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

New HFD shows new CRE loans at 76% of total new loans, for small US banks. Their CRE loans/capital is rising and LLR/CRE loans is low, falling. Off...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

US banks' HFD data shows loans down $22bn in recent weeks - a major worsening - and 76% growth in the latest week YoY for large time deposits. B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

US bank profit downgrades can be big, looking at FY23 consensus earnings achievement rates in 1Q23, 2Q23. Many banks are at less than 50% of FY23...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

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