Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans</li>
<li>US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data</li>
<li>Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions</li>
</ul>


US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans
US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data
Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions


US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

<ul>
<li>High frequency data on LLR for US banks suggests very good credit metrics</li>
<li>There is no decline of LLR on banks' balance sheet and LLR YoY growth is benign</li>
<li>At the same time, assets less liabilities remains at 18.6% of total loans, a good buffer</li>
</ul>


High frequency data on LLR for US banks suggests very good credit metrics
There is no decline of LLR on banks' balance sheet and LLR YoY growth is benign
At the same time, assets less liabilities remains at 18.6% of total loans, a good buffer


US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

<ul>
<li>New H8 release from Fed shows another strong week of YoY loan growth at 4.22%</li>
<li>The delta in C&amp;I loans which are core to economy is exceptional, now at 3.68% YoY</li>
<li>With loan loss reserves only growing at 1.15% YoY, credit metrics appear benign</li>
</ul>


New H8 release from Fed shows another strong week of YoY loan growth at 4.22%
The delta in C&amp;I loans which are core to economy is exceptional, now at 3.68% YoY
With loan loss reserves only growing at 1.15% YoY, credit metrics appear benign


US Banks - Another Week of >4% YoY Loan Growth, Credit Metrics Look Good: Meager LLR Growth

<ul>
<li>Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.</li>
<li>Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. </li>
<li>Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.</li>
</ul>


Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.
Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. 
Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.


US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

<ul>
<li>Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks</li>
<li>C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's</li>
<li>Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24</li>
</ul>


Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's
Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24


US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

United States

American Express Company is a global payment and travel company. The Company's principal products and services are charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services offered to consumers and businesses around the world.

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American Express Co (AXP US)

US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

US banks have seen loans outstanding rise above USD13 trillion for the first time ever. The growth rate remains above 4% YoY for five weeks...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

US banks weekly data shows LLR remains strong at over USD200bn with still benign YoY % growth, suggesting very good credit metrics. We now have 3rd...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Another Week of >4% YoY Loan Growth, Credit Metrics Look Good: Meager LLR Growth

US banks show another week of >4% YoY loan growth, two consecutive weeks, only time we have seen at least since first week of FY24. C&I loan delta...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

Weekly B/S data for US banks shows far higher loan growth in the week, much is driven by core C&I loans. LLR balances are lower, growth rate moved...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

There is good new high-frequency data from US banks and the Commercial Paper market suggesting a strong underlying economy for core C&I credit.

Daniel Tabbush

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