Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Markets raced to 52-week highs across US equity benchmarks with rally in tech stocks contributing to much of these gains. Nikkei raced to print another 34-year high.</li>
<li>Oil &amp; Copper ticked higher while other major commodities trended downwards last week. Beans and Corn marked their lowest price prints over the last 52-weeks.</li>
<li>Life is too short to be spent writing for an echo chamber and rewriting to meet the often arbitrary demands of a reviewer, writes Dr Damodaran.</li>
</ul>


Markets raced to 52-week highs across US equity benchmarks with rally in tech stocks contributing to much of these gains. Nikkei raced to print another 34-year high.
Oil &amp; Copper ticked higher while other major commodities trended downwards last week. Beans and Corn marked their lowest price prints over the last 52-weeks.
Life is too short to be spent writing for an echo chamber and rewriting to meet the often arbitrary demands of a reviewer, writes Dr Damodaran.


[TW2] US & JPN Equities on Steroids While China Remains Shaky on Deflation Fears (W/E 19th Jan 24)

<ul>
<li>For US banks outside the largest 100, credit card charge off rates are soaring now at 8.5% compared with a total charge off rate of 0.25%</li>
<li>Often smaller finance companies or non-traditional banks can see deterioration that hits the mainstream later, like in Thailand in 1997, and  like with HSBC Finance, Countrywide, Indymac in the past.</li>
<li>Ally Financial has already revealed a renewed surge of credit costs in 3Q23, defying the decline in the preceding two quarters. Maybe COF and others will show this too?</li>
</ul>


For US banks outside the largest 100, credit card charge off rates are soaring now at 8.5% compared with a total charge off rate of 0.25%
Often smaller finance companies or non-traditional banks can see deterioration that hits the mainstream later, like in Thailand in 1997, and  like with HSBC Finance, Countrywide, Indymac in the past.
Ally Financial has already revealed a renewed surge of credit costs in 3Q23, defying the decline in the preceding two quarters. Maybe COF and others will show this too?


US Banks - Credit Card Charge-Offs Soaring to 8.5%, Can Catch Some Off Guard with Focus on CRE, C&I

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Internet / In Depth: China’s internet content kings struggle to keep users paying</li><li>Hong Kong /: Hong Kong remains key in finance, innovation, city’s leader says</li><li>AMEX /: American Express doubles down for majority stake in China bank card clearing business</li></ul>

Internet / In Depth: China’s internet content kings struggle to keep users payingHong Kong /: Hong Kong remains key in finance, innovation, city’s leader saysAMEX /: American Express doubles down for majority stake in China bank card clearing business

CX Daily: China’s Internet Content Kings Struggle to Keep Users Paying 

United States

American Express Company is a global payment and travel company. The Company's principal products and services are charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services offered to consumers and businesses around the world.

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American Express Co (AXP US)

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

[TW2] US & JPN Equities on Steroids While China Remains Shaky on Deflation Fears (W/E 19th Jan 24)

Animal spirits were back in charge last week as market sentiments rose high. US and Japanese equity markets continue to set record highs. Are we...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Credit Card Charge-Offs Soaring to 8.5%, Can Catch Some Off Guard with Focus on CRE, C&I

Credit card charge off rates are now at 8.5% for US banks outside the largest 100, they are incredibly high, and we may expect spillover to...

Daniel Tabbush

CX Daily: China’s Internet Content Kings Struggle to Keep Users Paying

Internet / In Depth: China’s internet content kings struggle to keep users paying China’s internet content industry has finally cultivated its...

Caixin Global

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