EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians&nbsp;who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in&nbsp;London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV.&nbsp;Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double&nbsp;digits over the next 7-10 years annually.</li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran&nbsp;deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access&nbsp;listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed</li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as&nbsp;spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the&nbsp;least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in&nbsp;exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will&nbsp;gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve.</li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians&nbsp;who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in&nbsp;London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV.&nbsp;Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double&nbsp;digits over the next 7-10 years annually.Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran&nbsp;deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access&nbsp;listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removedBuy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as&nbsp;spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the&nbsp;least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in&nbsp;exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will&nbsp;gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve.

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year </li><li>The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). </li></ul>

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). 

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

American Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>American Financial Group's second quarter of 2025 faced mixed results and highlighted both strengths and challenges.</li><li>The company's annualized core operating return on equity stood at 15.5%, though it was tempered by less favorable returns from alternative investments.</li><li>The underwriting margins in their Specialty Property & Casualty (P&C) insurance operations remained strong, and the effects of increased interest rates contributed to a 10% year-over-year rise in net investment income, excluding alternative investments.</li></ul>

American Financial Group's second quarter of 2025 faced mixed results and highlighted both strengths and challenges.The company's annualized core operating return on equity stood at 15.5%, though it was tempered by less favorable returns from alternative investments.The underwriting margins in their Specialty Property & Casualty (P&C) insurance operations remained strong, and the effects of increased interest rates contributed to a 10% year-over-year rise in net investment income, excluding alternative investments.

American Financial Group (AFG): Is The Remarkable Growth In The Specialty Financial Group Here To Stay?

<ul><li>American Financial Group's first-quarter 2025 earnings reveal a mixed financial performance influenced by complex market conditions and strategic decisions.</li><li>Core net operating earnings per share stood at $1.81, indicating a decrease from the previous year's performance, primarily driven by lower property and casualty (P&C) insurance underwriting profit and reduced returns on the alternative investment portfolio.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

American Financial Group's first-quarter 2025 earnings reveal a mixed financial performance influenced by complex market conditions and strategic decisions.Core net operating earnings per share stood at $1.81, indicating a decrease from the previous year's performance, primarily driven by lower property and casualty (P&C) insurance underwriting profit and reduced returns on the alternative investment portfolio.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

American Financial Group (AFG): Specialty Property & Casualty Operations Can Help Secure Long-Term Value Creation For Stakeholders!

<ul><li>American Financial Group (AFG) concluded a successful 2024 with substantial financial performance, despite some industry-related challenges.</li><li>The company's core net operating earnings per share were $10.75 for the year, translating to an impressive core operating return on equity (ROE) of 19.3%.</li><li>These results stem from a diversified specialty insurance portfolio, effective capital management, and strategic investments, which helped AFG outperform many of its peers.</li></ul>

American Financial Group (AFG) concluded a successful 2024 with substantial financial performance, despite some industry-related challenges.The company's core net operating earnings per share were $10.75 for the year, translating to an impressive core operating return on equity (ROE) of 19.3%.These results stem from a diversified specialty insurance portfolio, effective capital management, and strategic investments, which helped AFG outperform many of its peers.

American Financial Group (AFG): Capital Management Strategy As A Substantial Influence On Stock Performance!

United States

American Financial Group, Inc. provides multi-line property and casualty insurance.  The Company also sells tax-deferred annuities and certain life and supplemental health insurance products.  American Financial operates in the United States.

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American Financial Group (AFG US)

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 2

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and...

Kay Van-Petersen

American Financial Group (AFG): Is The Remarkable Growth In The Specialty Financial Group Here To Stay?

American Financial Group's second quarter of 2025 faced mixed results and highlighted both strengths and challenges. The company's annualized core...

Baptista Research

American Financial Group (AFG): Specialty Property & Casualty Operations Can Help Secure Long-Term Value Creation For Stakeholders!

American Financial Group's first-quarter 2025 earnings reveal a mixed financial performance influenced by complex market conditions and strategic...

Baptista Research

American Financial Group (AFG): Capital Management Strategy As A Substantial Influence On Stock Performance!

American Financial Group (AFG) concluded a successful 2024 with substantial financial performance, despite some industry-related challenges. The...

Baptista Research

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