Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Amid the prolonged 5G rollout, various industry groups have had their time to shine. Today we explain why we believe the cell towers are next to benefit, and we recommend adding exposure at current levels.

Amid the prolonged 5G rollout, various industry groups have had their time to shine. Today we explain why we believe the cell towers are next to benefit, and we recommend adding exposure at current levels.

Cell Tower Stocks Turning The Corner -- Buy AMT, SBAC, and CCI

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Telxius, a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> (50% Telefonica, 40% KKR, 10% Pontegadea) reached an agreement with Boston-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-tower-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6365:1" rel="noopener">American Tower (AMT US)</a> to sell its entire tower unit (30,722 sites across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Peru and Spain).
<ul>
<li>The EV is €7.7 bn including the remaining payments to be done by Telxius to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-deutschland-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21687:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR)</a> to complete the German transaction.</li>
<li>The price is 30.x EBITDA, above the usual 23x.</li>
<li>Telefónica will reduce its debt by €4.6 bn, 12.5% of the total.</li>
<li>Debt reduction and pending corporate operations provide the group with sufficient liquidity to maintain its commitment to shareholders for the time being.</li>
</ul>
In the current context, Telefonica focuses on the management of FCF to preserve the payment of the dividend, by reducing investments. The dividend remains at €0.4 per share and debt, one of the group's main drawbacks, fell c.15% LTM. In the long term, the potential for structural growth is low, competition high, and room to maneuver limited. The current environment makes it difficult to sell non-strategic assets at adequate prices and questions the sustainability of the dividend.
<h3>Recommendation</h3>
Telefonica: DCF valuation is €4.2 (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 6.4%, g 0.3%).
<ul>
<li>The sale of Telxius may support market expectations for a potential acceleration in the execution of the strategic reshuffle announced by management, thus leading to a re-rating of the company.</li>
<li>But there are risks: slower deleverage, lower economic growth in Spain (24% of EBITDA), macro deterioration and currency depreciations in Central and South America (c. 15% of EBITDA). Positive surprises may come from further disposals at high multiples thus leading to faster deleverage, better than expected economic growth in Central and South America and a reduction of the (so far unsustainable) dividend.</li>
</ul>
Cellnex, reiterate TP of €64.36. Cellnex could become the object of a take-over.

Telxius, a subsidiary of Telefonica SA (TEF SM) (50% Telefonica, 40% KKR, 10% Pontegadea) reached an agreement with Boston-based American Tower (AMT US) to sell its entire tower unit (30,722 sites across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Peru and Spain).

The EV is €7.7 bn including the remaining payments to be done by Telxius to Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR) to complete the German transaction.
The price is 30.x EBITDA, above the usual 23x.
Telefónica will reduce its debt by €4.6 bn, 12.5% of the total.
Debt reduction and pending corporate operations provide the group with sufficient liquidity to maintain its commitment to shareholders for the time being.

In the current context, Telefonica focuses on the management of FCF to preserve the payment of the dividend, by reducing investments. The dividend remains at €0.4 per share and debt, one of the group's main drawbacks, fell c.15% LTM. In the long term, the potential for structural growth is low, competition high, and room to maneuver limited. The current environment makes it difficult to sell non-strategic assets at adequate prices and questions the sustainability of the dividend.
Recommendation
Telefonica: DCF valuation is €4.2 (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 6.4%, g 0.3%).

The sale of Telxius may support market expectations for a potential acceleration in the execution of the strategic reshuffle announced by management, thus leading to a re-rating of the company.
But there are risks: slower deleverage, lower economic growth in Spain (24% of EBITDA), macro deterioration and currency depreciations in Central and South America (c. 15% of EBITDA). Positive surprises may come from further disposals at high multiples thus leading to faster deleverage, better than expected economic growth in Central and South America and a reduction of the (so far unsustainable) dividend.

Cellnex, reiterate TP of €64.36. Cellnex could become the object of a take-over.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> has closed a transformational operation, valued at around €10 bn, which has allowed it to reach over 103,000 telecommunications towers (vs. the prior 73,000) and strengthen its leadership position in Europe. The company has met its expansion objectives, even earlier than planned (December 2021). A capital increase has not been necessary, although it has run out of ammunition for future acquisitions.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of the purchase. It represents an earthquake in the European market for telecommunications towers, which now has a colossus, far away from any other potential European player.
<ul class="">
<li>Since its IPO in 2015, Cellnex has invested c. €26 bn in acquisitions.</li>
<li>After the pact, Cellnex's footprint extends to twelve countries. Spain (where Cellnex is based), with its 11,000 towers, is now only the fifth market in number of towers (and represents only 10% of the total footprint) behind Italy (24,500) , United Kingdom (14,700), France (13,700) and Poland (11,900).</li>
<li>This operation is unique due to its size and transformative nature: it involves raising the number of towers by 41%, revenue by 46% and backlog by up to 63%, long-term insured revenue.</li>
</ul>
A capital increase was not strictly necessary to purchase the Hutchison Towers. The company had cash available of more than €8 bn. However, the net debt/EBITDA approaches 6x and therefore Cellnex runs out of ammunition for future acquisitions. I do not rule out that Cellnex pays future purchases with its own shares.
Taking an average of DCF valuation and multiples, my TP is €64.36 per share, which implies an upside of 20% to the last closing price. Therefore my recommendation is LONG Cellnex.
<ul>
<li>The dividend yield is low because Cellnex is in an accelerated expansionary phase. However, the generation of recurring cash implies a profitability of more than 5% as of 2022e.</li>
</ul>

Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) has closed a transformational operation, valued at around €10 bn, which has allowed it to reach over 103,000 telecommunications towers (vs. the prior 73,000) and strengthen its leadership position in Europe. The company has met its expansion objectives, even earlier than planned (December 2021). A capital increase has not been necessary, although it has run out of ammunition for future acquisitions.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of the purchase. It represents an earthquake in the European market for telecommunications towers, which now has a colossus, far away from any other potential European player.

Since its IPO in 2015, Cellnex has invested c. €26 bn in acquisitions.
After the pact, Cellnex's footprint extends to twelve countries. Spain (where Cellnex is based), with its 11,000 towers, is now only the fifth market in number of towers (and represents only 10% of the total footprint) behind Italy (24,500) , United Kingdom (14,700), France (13,700) and Poland (11,900).
This operation is unique due to its size and transformative nature: it involves raising the number of towers by 41%, revenue by 46% and backlog by up to 63%, long-term insured revenue.

A capital increase was not strictly necessary to purchase the Hutchison Towers. The company had cash available of more than €8 bn. However, the net debt/EBITDA approaches 6x and therefore Cellnex runs out of ammunition for future acquisitions. I do not rule out that Cellnex pays future purchases with its own shares.
Taking an average of DCF valuation and multiples, my TP is €64.36 per share, which implies an upside of 20% to the last closing price. Therefore my recommendation is LONG Cellnex.

The dividend yield is low because Cellnex is in an accelerated expansionary phase. However, the generation of recurring cash implies a profitability of more than 5% as of 2022e.


Patryk Basiewicz

PGB Research

On 8 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> announced a major acquisition and also announced a rights issue with a dilution of c. 22.5% and proceeds of EUR2.5bn. Given that Cellnex has a varied capital structure, which includes bonds and convertibles, I am aware that clients are using complex strategies to profit from the situation.
These strategies require some comfort with Cellnex's fundamentals and quality of its business model. Below, I discuss Cellnex's fundamentals and provide evidence that indicates Cellnex is a very strong business. In fact, it is a unique investment proposition due to its strategy, competitive position and growth prospects. 
This insight can be also be seen as a Bottom-Up investment case for Cellnex.

On 8 October, Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) announced a major acquisition and also announced a rights issue with a dilution of c. 22.5% and proceeds of EUR2.5bn. Given that Cellnex has a varied capital structure, which includes bonds and convertibles, I am aware that clients are using complex strategies to profit from the situation.
These strategies require some comfort with Cellnex's fundamentals and quality of its business model. Below, I discuss Cellnex's fundamentals and provide evidence that indicates Cellnex is a very strong business. In fact, it is a unique investment proposition due to its strategy, competitive position and growth prospects. 
This insight can be also be seen as a Bottom-Up investment case for Cellnex.

Cellnex (CLNX SM): Fundamental Briefing for Those Trading the Current Rights Issue

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Helios Towers Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helios-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28332:1" rel="noopener">Helios Towers Ltd (HET UK)</a> (HT) is a leading independent mobile tower operator in Africa. HT has filed for an IPO in the London Stock Exchange (LSE). HT plans to raise $125m floating at least 25% of its ownership. The IPO price range of 115-145 pence per share implies a post-listing market cap of $1.42bn-$1.79bn. IPO books will be closed on (Monday) October 14th and the stock will likely start trading on (Tuesday) October 15th.In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/helios-towers-ipo-part-i-more-room-for-inorganic-growth-and-a-lot-more-to-like-about" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:33023" rel="noopener">Helios Towers IPO (Part I): More Room for Inorganic Growth and a Lot More to Like About</a>, we were broadly positive about HT’s operations and suggested that there is still room for HT to grow inorganically in its markets.In this note, we present our forecast and take a closer look at HT’s capex plans and valuation.

Helios Towers Ltd (HET UK) (HT) is a leading independent mobile tower operator in Africa. HT has filed for an IPO in the London Stock Exchange (LSE). HT plans to raise $125m floating at least 25% of its ownership. The IPO price range of 115-145 pence per share implies a post-listing market cap of $1.42bn-$1.79bn. IPO books will be closed on (Monday) October 14th and the stock will likely start trading on (Tuesday) October 15th.In our previous note, Helios Towers IPO (Part I): More Room for Inorganic Growth and a Lot More to Like About, we were broadly positive about HT’s operations and suggested that there is still room for HT to grow inorganically in its markets.In this note, we present our forecast and take a closer look at HT’s capex plans and valuation.

Helios Towers IPO (Part II): Attractive at the Lower End of the IPO Range

United States

American Tower Corp. is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops wireless communications and broadcast towers in the United States. The Company leases antennae sites on multi-tenant towers for a diverse range of wireless communications industries, including personal communications services, paging, and cellular.

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American Tower (AMT US)

Cell Tower Stocks Turning The Corner -- Buy AMT, SBAC, and CCI

Amid the prolonged 5G rollout, various industry groups have had their time to shine. We explain why we believe the cell towers are next to benefit,...

Vermilion Research

Telefonica's Disposal of Telxius

Telefonica manages FCF to preserve the divi, by reducing investments. Debt fell c.15% LTM. Structural growth potential is low, competition high,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Cellnex's Transformational Acquisition

The purchase represents an earthquake in European telco towers. An average of DCF and multiples gives a TP of €64.36 per share, which implies an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Cellnex (CLNX SM): Fundamental Briefing for Those Trading the Current Rights Issue

On 8 October, Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) announced a major acquisition and also announced a rights issue with a dilution of c. 22.5% and...

Patryk Basiewicz

Helios Towers IPO (Part II): Attractive at the Lower End of the IPO Range

Helios Towers Ltd (HET UK) (HT) is a leading independent mobile tower operator in Africa. HT has filed for an IPO in the London Stock Exchange...

Supun Walpola

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