Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.</li>
<li>However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.</li>
<li>In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.</li>
</ul>


Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.
However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.
In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.


All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>INCJ aims to raise around US$1.8bn via a secondary sell-down in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>. This will be a clean-up trade as INCJ has been paring down its stake. </li>
<li>The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 12 days of three month ADV and around 6% of current mcap.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


INCJ aims to raise around US$1.8bn via a secondary sell-down in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will be a clean-up trade as INCJ has been paring down its stake. 
The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 12 days of three month ADV and around 6% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Renesas Electronics Placement - Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ?  China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ?  China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion. 
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD. 
JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth. 


Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs </li>
<li>Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand</li>
<li>We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)</li>
</ul>


Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs 
Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand
We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy's raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24. </li>
<li>JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy's raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA
JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24. 
JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management. 


Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

Japan

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

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Ana Holdings (9202 JP)

All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

This note highlights ANA FY24 guidance is very cautious. However, we see consensus as already there for FY24, in contrast to very low consensus...

Neil Glynn

Renesas Electronics Placement - Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help

INCJ aims to raise around US$1.8bn via a secondary sell-down in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will be a clean-up trade as INCJ has been...

Ethan Aw

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Mixed US Payrolls; US Equities close with gains; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore...

Mark Chadwick

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

The recovery in outbound Chinese tourism remained strong in July. In this insight we also look at relaxation of Chinese group travel to Japan and...

Tracking Traffic

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

US Equities down on Consumer spending concerns; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record...

Mark Chadwick

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