Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Luxshare Precision Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We consider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd-3f59eaa1-da7f-4d9b-add0-c8efccfee0d5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50296:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (2475 HK)</a>'s H-share IPO not expensive, especially given its gigantic market capitalisation which will attract interests. </li>
<li>Its 3-year EPS CAGR is forecast at 19.2%, and its position as a local and global leader in precision intelligent manufacturing solutions justify a premium to peers. </li>
<li>The IPO price is set at 17.6% discount to the A-share. It can at least trade on 10% discount, translating into a price of HK$69.12, or 9.2% upside.</li>
</ul>


We consider Luxshare Precision Industry (2475 HK)'s H-share IPO not expensive, especially given its gigantic market capitalisation which will attract interests. 
Its 3-year EPS CAGR is forecast at 19.2%, and its position as a local and global leader in precision intelligent manufacturing solutions justify a premium to peers. 
The IPO price is set at 17.6% discount to the A-share. It can at least trade on 10% discount, translating into a price of HK$69.12, or 9.2% upside.


Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

United States

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Analog Devices (ADI US)

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

What's happening in semiconductors? When will the downturn end? What does this mean to chip stock prices? This Insight provides some concrete...

Jim Handy

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

What's happening in semiconductors? When will the downturn end? What does this mean to chip stock prices? This Insight provides some concrete...

Jim Handy

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

​Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Osbert Tang, CFA

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.