Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM</li>
<li>WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast</li>
<li>We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM
WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast
We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.


Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the Analog Devices' second quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings, the company reported revenue of $2.16 billion, with profitability and earnings per share exceeding expectations.</li><li>The management believes that the business is past the low point of this cycle, with positive signs of improvement particularly in the industrial sector.</li><li>However, there is still economic and geopolitical uncertainty that can potentially impact short-term performance, as such, careful cost and inventory management will be key.</li></ul>

During the Analog Devices' second quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings, the company reported revenue of $2.16 billion, with profitability and earnings per share exceeding expectations.The management believes that the business is past the low point of this cycle, with positive signs of improvement particularly in the industrial sector.However, there is still economic and geopolitical uncertainty that can potentially impact short-term performance, as such, careful cost and inventory management will be key.

Analog Devices Inc.: Expansion in Automotive Market & AI Investments Reaping Solid Profits? - Major Drivers

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard should declare to established 12" Fab in Singapore within 2014.</li>
<li>Vanguard is likely to announce the establishment of 2 sets of 12" fabs in the next 6 months.  </li>
<li>China is expanding 28/22nm and above technologies, and we believe it's more appropriate for Vanguard to compete with others rather than TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard should declare to established 12" Fab in Singapore within 2014.
Vanguard is likely to announce the establishment of 2 sets of 12" fabs in the next 6 months.  
China is expanding 28/22nm and above technologies, and we believe it's more appropriate for Vanguard to compete with others rather than TSMC.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

United States

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

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Analog Devices (ADI US)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

Analog Devices Inc.: Expansion in Automotive Market & AI Investments Reaping Solid Profits? - Major Drivers

During the Analog Devices' second quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings, the company reported revenue of $2.16 billion, with profitability and...

Baptista Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

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Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

Analog Devices Inc.: Expansion in Automotive Market & AI Investments Reaping Solid Profits? - Major Drivers

During the Analog Devices' second quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings, the company reported revenue of $2.16 billion, with profitability and...

Baptista Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

​Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.