Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Aptiv completed the Versigent (VGNT) spin on April 1 and reported Q1 May 5.</li><li>The spin executed cleanly, the thesis is intact, and the stock has sold off putting APTV at $57 against my $83 SOTP target.</li><li>New Aptiv is a focused industrial technology company: Engineered Components (comparable to Amphenol) and Intelligent Systems, which houses Wind River, the OS powering F-35s, satellites, and 5G networks. </li></ul>

Aptiv completed the Versigent (VGNT) spin on April 1 and reported Q1 May 5.The spin executed cleanly, the thesis is intact, and the stock has sold off putting APTV at $57 against my $83 SOTP target.New Aptiv is a focused industrial technology company: Engineered Components (comparable to Amphenol) and Intelligent Systems, which houses Wind River, the OS powering F-35s, satellites, and 5G networks. 

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>An M&amp;A deal and a spinoff are both closing soon.  The M&amp;A will trigger an intra-review SP 500 ADD. The spinoff will trigger a SP 600 DEL.</li>
<li>We expect two changes during the regular June 2026 rebalance and two more intra-review index changes after the regular rebalance is announced.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
An M&amp;A deal and a spinoff are both closing soon.  The M&amp;A will trigger an intra-review SP 500 ADD. The spinoff will trigger a SP 600 DEL.
We expect two changes during the regular June 2026 rebalance and two more intra-review index changes after the regular rebalance is announced.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6 March 2026. </li>
<li>There are 4 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see $26bn of flows, one-way.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6 March 2026. 
There are 4 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see $26bn of flows, one-way.


Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

<ul>
<li>Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026.</li>
<li>As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire Avidity’s RNA therapeutics platform and pipeline focused on neuromuscular diseases.</li>
<li>Avidity’s RNA programs targeting cardiovascular disease will be separated into a new independent company called Atrium (expected to trade under the same RNA ticker) and distributed to existing shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026.
As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire Avidity’s RNA therapeutics platform and pipeline focused on neuromuscular diseases.
Avidity’s RNA programs targeting cardiovascular disease will be separated into a new independent company called Atrium (expected to trade under the same RNA ticker) and distributed to existing shareholders.


United States

ANGI Homeservices Inc. operates an online portal for home improvement. The Company offers a digital platform that connects homeowners with service professionals for home services. ANGI Homeservices serves customers worldwide.

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ANGI Homeservices (ANGI US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Update (APTV, VGNT, Earnings!)

Aptiv completed the Versigent (VGNT) spin on April 1 and reported Q1 May 5. The spin executed cleanly, the thesis is intact, and the stock has sold...

Richard Howe

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

We expect 1 spinoff change to SP500/600 imminently, one M&A change to SP500, then two changes in the June 2026 rebalance. There could be two other...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

The SP500/400/600 review results for March 2026 were announced Friday. We got 2 of the four SP500 ADDs correct (our model defaults to two changes)...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Weekly Update (ANGI, MEDXF, RNA)

Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026. As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire...

Richard Howe

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