Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.</li>
<li>The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.</li>
<li>We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.</li>
</ul>


We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.


Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.</li>
<li>China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.</li>
<li>Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.</li>
</ul>


China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.
China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.
Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-china-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9423:1" rel="noopener">West China Cement (2233 HK)</a> is a cement company based in Western China.  Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% from 1.2 million tons in 2022. </li>
<li>The company has 2 million tons of cement capacity in Mozambique, 1.5 million tons in Congo, and 1.3 million tons in Ethiopia.  </li>
<li>The company is trading at 4x 2024E PE.  I believe the risk reward is quite high here. </li>
</ul>



West China Cement (2233 HK) is a cement company based in Western China.  Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% from 1.2 million tons in 2022. 
The company has 2 million tons of cement capacity in Mozambique, 1.5 million tons in Congo, and 1.3 million tons in Ethiopia.  
The company is trading at 4x 2024E PE.  I believe the risk reward is quite high here. 


West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a> disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a> at HK$3.22. Including the dividend, the total offer is HK$3.26, 1.7% below the last close. </li>
<li>The offer, which is final, is unattractive as it is materially below net cash and historical trading ranges. The disparity cannot be justified by the potential cash burn this year.</li>
<li>While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates and emerging retail opposition suggest a high chance of a deal break. </li>
</ul>



Asia Cement China (743 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Asia Cement (1102 TT) at HK$3.22. Including the dividend, the total offer is HK$3.26, 1.7% below the last close. 
The offer, which is final, is unattractive as it is materially below net cash and historical trading ranges. The disparity cannot be justified by the potential cash burn this year.
While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates and emerging retail opposition suggest a high chance of a deal break. 


Asia Cement China (743 HK): A Low-Balled Offer Set up to Fail

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

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Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

We see Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...

Eric Chen

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

West China Cement (2233 HK): African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE

West China Cement (2233 HK) is an African cement play. Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% yoy. International sales made...

Steve

Asia Cement China (743 HK): A Low-Balled Offer Set up to Fail

The low-balled offer is final. While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates and emerging retail...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

We see ​Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...

Eric Chen

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

West China Cement (2233 HK): African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE

West China Cement (2233 HK) is an African cement play. Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% yoy. International sales made...

Steve

Asia Cement China (743 HK): A Low-Balled Offer Set up to Fail

The low-balled offer is final. While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates and emerging retail...

Arun George

We see Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...