European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Banco BPM controls 89.949% of Anima and is likely to pursue full ownership via a second offer or squeeze-out, offering arbitrageurs a clear path to monetize residual shares.</li>
<li>At €6.425, investors ahead of the 19 May ex-date can earn €0.333 net dividend plus €6.55 in a follow-up bid, implying a 7.1–8.9% spread with attractive upside.</li>
<li>Annualized returns could reach 45–60%, though investors must weigh liquidity constraints, execution risk, and dividend withholding tax—especially for retail holders—when sizing or structuring the trade.</li>
</ul>


Banco BPM controls 89.949% of Anima and is likely to pursue full ownership via a second offer or squeeze-out, offering arbitrageurs a clear path to monetize residual shares.
At €6.425, investors ahead of the 19 May ex-date can earn €0.333 net dividend plus €6.55 in a follow-up bid, implying a 7.1–8.9% spread with attractive upside.
Annualized returns could reach 45–60%, though investors must weigh liquidity constraints, execution risk, and dividend withholding tax—especially for retail holders—when sizing or structuring the trade.


<ul>
<li>Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00 per share, securing over 43% shareholder support. Shareholders will vote on February 28, with deal completion expected in mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.</li>
<li>Strategic acquisition boosts Banco BPM’s non-interest income to 50% of total revenues and strengthens its wealth management and insurance business, reinforcing its defense against UniCredit’s €10 billion takeover attempt.</li>
<li>Market assigns a 92% probability of deal completion. Shareholders are advised to accept, as failure to tender may result in lower liquidity.</li>
</ul>


Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00 per share, securing over 43% shareholder support. Shareholders will vote on February 28, with deal completion expected in mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.
Strategic acquisition boosts Banco BPM’s non-interest income to 50% of total revenues and strengthens its wealth management and insurance business, reinforcing its defense against UniCredit’s €10 billion takeover attempt.
Market assigns a 92% probability of deal completion. Shareholders are advised to accept, as failure to tender may result in lower liquidity.


Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>. The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.</li>
<li>The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.</li>
<li>The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM). The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.
The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.
The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.


Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

<ul>
<li>There are people who'll take profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.</li>
<li>Just like in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a>'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> via the stealthy scrip dividend option. </li>
<li>The landscape for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  </li>
</ul>


There are people who'll take profit in Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.
Just like in Lufax Holding (6623 HK)'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) via the stealthy scrip dividend option. 
The landscape for Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

Italy

Anima Holding S.p.A. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides asset management services.

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Anima Holding (ANIM IM)

Closing the Spread: Banking on Anima

Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding

Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00/share, strengthening wealth management and insurance business to fend off UniCredit's takeover attempt.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Closing the Spread: Banking on Anima

​Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding

​Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00/share, strengthening wealth management and insurance business to fend off UniCredit's takeover attempt.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

​UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00/share, strengthening wealth management and insurance business to fend off UniCredit's takeover attempt.

UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...